← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Bet Stayers Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Valedictory
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Valedictory (SR 104, 9/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a meaningful margin and carries a competitive 9-5, giving it a weight advantage over Small Fry (SR 103, 9-6) despite near-identical ability ratings. The market has moved decisively in its favour — a 24% shortening from opening — which combined with GoingFit:+ confirms the horse handles today's good ground well. The Gosden/Buick combination strikes at 25%/20% respectively, one of the strongest connections pairings on the card, and a recent form line of -26115 shows progressive improvement culminating in back-to-back wins. The MarkMv:+3 rise is minimal and should not negate the form advantage. Each-way alternative: Small Fry. Main danger: Small Fry — Small Fry (SR 103, 5/2) is the joint-highest-rated runner and has market support (in 8%) from a powerful O'Brien yard; at just 1lb inferior SR to Valedictory with solid recent form showing a win two starts back, it represents the most credible alternative if the going suits better than GoingFit:- suggests.
Full result
Winner: Small Fry (IRE) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Small Fry Fox #2 11/4
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2
Mountain Road 16/1
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3
Ride The Thunder 9/1
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4
Westminster Moon 25/1
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5
Manxman 16/1
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6
Kirchner Fox #3 4/1
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7
Valedictory Fox #1 9/2
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8
Boatswain 18/1
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9
Prydwen 33/1
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10
Shrimp Shady Fox #4 11/1
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11
Team Player 11/1
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12
Kilmeaden 28/1
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13
In The Breeze 25/1
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14
Fireblade 22/1
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15
Duke Of Oxford 100/1
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16
Mordor 66/1
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—
Ghaiyya 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Valedictory 9/2 7TH
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2
Small Fry 5/2 SP 2/1F 🏆 WON
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3
Kirchner 9/2 6TH
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4
Shrimp Shady 11/1 10TH