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LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB Race)

15:10 Southwell (AW) Sun 16 Aug 2026 1m13y Class 4 Good 11 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Prosperity silks

Prosperity

SPECULATIVE Advised 8/13 SP 4/6F Est. 45%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Prosperity (SR:157, 8/13) is the standout on ability — a 5-point SR gap over the next-best Al Jolson (SR:152) and a 31-point gap over the bulk of the field. Trained by K.R. Burke (19% career strike rate, 682 runners — one of the shrewder handlers of this type), ridden by Pierre-Louis Jamin, and carrying a favourable 9-6 on a single winning run, this horse profiles as a well-above-average novice dropping into Class 4 against limited opposition. The 8% market drift is a mild negative flag worth noting, but in a field of 11 where all runners share unknown distance and going records, the SR dominance and trainer quality are the decisive signals — the drift is more likely profit-taking on a short price than genuine concern. Al Jolson is the only credible rival at SR:152 and is actually steaming in (Mkt:in17%), so the danger is real but Prosperity's class edge holds. Each-way alternative: Al Jolson. Main danger: Al Jolson — Al Jolson (SR:152, 5/2) is steaming in with a 17% market move from the Simon & Ed Crisford yard (21% career strike rate) — connections with that record and that level of confidence on a debutant suggest they know this horse is ready to run a big race, and an SR of 152 is entirely capable of toppling Prosperity if the favourite underperforms on AW debut.

Verify· #12709

Full result

Winner: Prosperity (GB) at SP 4/6F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Prosperity silks Prosperity Fox #1 K. R. Burke · Pierre-Louis Jamin 4/7
  2. 2 Al Jolson silks Al Jolson Fox #2 Simon & Ed Crisford · Jack Mitchell 7/4
  3. 3 Savile Row silks Savile Row Antony Brittain · Harry Russell 12/1
  4. 4 Elite Approach silks Elite Approach Joey Ramsden · Taryn Langley(5) 50/1
  5. 5 Electric Gambler silks Electric Gambler Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · Jason Watson 66/1
  6. 6 Peaceful Spirit silks Peaceful Spirit Lawrence Mullaney · Sean Kirrane 28/1
  7. 7 Majestic Ruler silks Majestic Ruler Julia & Shelley Birkett · Dylan Hogan 66/1
  8. 8 My Prerogative silks My Prerogative David Killahena & Graeme McPherson · Callum Hutchinson 200/1
  9. 9 Ze Gucci Poochie silks Ze Gucci Poochie Martin Dunne · Sean D Bowen 200/1
  10. — Rua Mor silks Rua Mor Sam England · Ray Dawson 33/1
  11. — Sotto Il Sasso silks Sotto Il Sasso Fox #3 Brian Meehan · Joe Leavy -

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Prosperity silks Prosperity 8/13 SP 4/6F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Al Jolson silks Al Jolson 5/2 🥈 2ND
  3. 3 Sotto Il Sasso silks Sotto Il Sasso 17/2