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Mr Fox’s call
Crooked Path
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/4 SP 11/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Crooked Path (SR 81, 7/4) is the clear class leader in this field — the next best SR is Solanna at 74, and the drop of three tiers (ClassMv:↓3) with a mark 47lb lower than its last win (MarkMv:-47) means connections have deliberately placed this horse in very soft company. GoingFit:+ confirms it handles today's conditions, the 14% market inward move backs the stable confidence, and Cieren Fallon (20% career strike rate, 802 rides) is a meaningful booking at this level. The 114-day absence and a recent form string of 44800- are the only negatives, but the class drop is so extreme that it overrides those concerns in a Class 5 handicap worth just £4,187. Each-way alternative: Star Time. Main danger: Star Time — Star Time (SR 71, 4/1) has steamed in 48% from its opening price — the strongest market move in the field — carrying only 9-13 (7lb less than Crooked Path) for trainer Alan King, and unknown distance/going suitability leaves upside if it handles today's conditions.
Full result
Winner: Crooked Path (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Crooked Path Fox #1 5/4
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2
Maestro Del Mar 15/2
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3
Star Time Fox #3 9/2
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4
Roland Garros 18/1
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5
Maywedance 20/1
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6
Solanna Fox #2 7/2
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7
Naasma 20/1
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8
Backer Bilk 80/1
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9
Imperial Decision 50/1
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10
Eljowhary 22/1
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Semper Femina -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Crooked Path 7/4 SP 11/4 🏆 WON
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2
Solanna 4/1 6TH
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3
Star Time 4/1 🥉 3RD