← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Jill Willows Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Obelix
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Obelix (SR 86, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and the market has emphatically backed this assessment with a 31% inward move — the strongest market signal in the race. He drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), giving connections every reason to expect a competitive run, and crucially he is proven at today's distance (DistFit:+) and today's going (GoingFit:+), two boxes that very few rivals can tick simultaneously. Jason Hart (14% career strike rate from 1,299 rides) is a high-quality booking who knows how to ride Beverley's sharp turn. His recent form reads -01550, which requires context — the last run (0) is a concern, but the class drop and going match give logical grounds to dismiss it, and the money clearly agrees. Each-way alternative: Tattie Bogle. Main danger: Alpha Capture — Alpha Capture (SR 93, 9/4) is the field's SR leader, has shortened 11% in the market, and while carrying top-weight of 10-4 at +6 above last win mark, Roger Fell's horse has consistent recent form (621202) and the cheekpieces add a tactical edge that could see it dominate from the front on good-to-firm ground.
Full result
Winner: Glenfinnan (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Glenfinnan Fox #4 9/2
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2
Alpha Capture Fox #2 9/4
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3
Intervention 40/1
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4
Obelix Fox #1 4/1
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5
Highland Olly 14/1
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6
Homestrait 12/1
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7
Beyond The Bar 25/1
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8
Tattie Bogle Fox #3 13/2
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9
Flying Fletcher 28/1
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10
Bell Shot 9/1
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—
Style Of Life 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Obelix 4/1 🏁 4TH
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2
Alpha Capture 9/4 🥈 2ND
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3
Tattie Bogle 7/1 8TH
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4
Glenfinnan 5/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON