← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Birkacre Brow
MEDIUM Advised 10/1 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Birkacre Brow's SR of 147 is in a completely different league to every other runner in this five-horse field — the next-best is Desert Sands at SR 83, a 64-point gulf that is enormous in a Class 3 novice. The 42% market move inward is a screaming stable signal, and James Tate (17% strike rate) booking the in-form Billy Loughnane (19%) confirms this is a serious intended winner. Yes, the form reads 4-0 in two starts and the class jump is two tiers, but the SR data says those runs were well above this level in quality terms and Loughnane's market confidence strongly implies an imminent big performance. Weight is favourable at 8-13, and in a five-runner field with no credible rival on the figures, this is a clear standout pick. Each-way alternative: Bellatina. Main danger: Desert Sands — Desert Sands is the market favourite at 11/10 and holds Class 3 experience at the same level (ClassMv:=), meaning connections believe it is ready for this grade even if the trainer's 0% strike rate and SR of 83 suggest the market may be overestimating it.
Full result
Winner: Bellatina (GB) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bellatina Fox #2 11/2
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2
Birkacre Brow Fox #1 17/2
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3
Desert Sands Fox #3 6/5
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4
Crimson Blaze 10/1
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5
Ouragan 5/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3