← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Knight Frank Cambridge Connections Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Cerro Blanco
MEDIUM Advised 1/20 SP 1/25F Est. 78%
Mr Fox says
Cerro Blanco (SR 106, 1/20) is a Charlie Appleby-trained 3yo dropping three class tiers with a 1-2 form line showing a win on debut or recent start. The 1/20 price reflects an enormous market confidence that is rarely seen and speaks to insider certainty about this horse's ability relative to the opposition. Despite a modest SR of 106, this is a Class 4 novice with only four runners, and none of the rivals present a credible case: the field SR tops out at 137 (Tacticalist) but that horse is a complete maiden with a blank form string of six non-finishes or starts with no recorded result, drifting at 13% in the market. Appleby (29% career SR) paired with Billy Loughnane (18%) is a confident booking, and the weight of 9-11 is manageable for a horse whose class advantage over this tiny field is overwhelming. Each-way alternative: Tacticalist. Main danger: Tacticalist — Tacticalist carries the highest SR in the field at 137 with the lightest weight (8-13) and Cieren Fallon in the saddle — if those blank form entries represent unexposed ability rather than DNFs, an Appleby-priced certainty could be upset by a debutant or lightly-raced improver from the same yard.
Full result
Winner: Cerro Blanco (GB) at SP 1/25F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Cerro Blanco Fox #1 1/25
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2
Nothing But Love Fox #3 20/1
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3
Tacticalist Fox #2 18/1
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4
Winston's Oath 125/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3