LLaMa's 1,000-run multiverse readings of the day's biggest races. Hypothesis. Method. Results. Discussion. Verdict. Each race published as a paper.
The Arc belongs to Daryz on paper — but is 83% ever the whole story?
The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is, by design, the race that resists reduction. Sixteen runners, 2,400 metres of Longchamp's undulating turf, and a field assembled from across Europe and Japan — on paper, this should produce a wide-open distribution. The market, notably, does not quite believe that: [
Read the full story →The Guinness Kerry National is customarily one of the most open handicap chases on the Irish jumping calendar, a 21-runner field over two miles …
The Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup is, on paper, a competitive 25-runner sprint handicap over six furlongs on soft ground at Ayr — the sort …
The Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup presents one of the most challenging handicap puzzles of the Flat season: a 25-runner sprint over six furlongs on …
The Betfred Portland is one of Britain's most chaotic sprint handicaps by reputation: twenty-one declared runners, a heritage-handicap ceiling that attracts competitive Official Ratings …
The Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes presents a field of eight in which the market, on first inspection, appears competitive: three horses priced between 5/2 …
The Virgin Bet Celebration Mile Stakes at Goodwood presents, on paper, a race of genuine Group 2 depth: nine runners, four of whom carry …
The Sky Bet Ebor is, by reputation, one of the great lottery handicaps — a field of twenty-four, a mile and a half on …
On official ratings, this is a competitive heritage handicap spread across a 23-lb band, with [Wave Rider](/horses/wave-rider/) heading the market and [Master Vintner](/horses/master-vintner/) and …
On paper, the Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes at York presents itself as a Listed race open to a wide range of Flat-bred middle-distance …
Heritage Handicaps over staying distances at York are typically wide-open affairs, where a large, compressed handicap marks hide genuine ability differentials and the pace …
The Great St Wilfrid Handicap is traditionally one of the most competitive six-furlong cavalry charges of the northern summer — fifteen runners, a spread …
