The Fox's Wire · Sly Man
Horses to Watch — Honest Record
Every daily selection since the ledger opened. Won? Gold. 2nd? Silver. 3rd? Bronze. No hiding.
640
Total picks
140
Winners
343
Placed (top 3)
53.6%
Placed hit-rate
Pricing verdict scoreboard
Shadow classifier — under evaluation. Mirrored from Pick Winner's frozen v1 policy so BET / WATCH / PASS reads identically across both products. BET = market may be soft · WATCH = fair-priced · PASS = priced against us.
- BET 14.5% strike +3.62% ROI n = 69
- WATCH 9.1% strike -45.45% ROI n = 22
- PASS 20.0% strike +25.00% ROI n = 10
Cohort matrix
Same settled picks as the scoreboard above, sliced by tier (Confirmed = Pick Winner agrees; Radar = story-only backfill) and by pricing verdict (BET / WATCH / PASS). A/E is actual wins ÷ expected wins from market-implied probability — above 1.00 is beating the market on that cohort. Rows with fewer than 20 picks are dimmed: small sample, treat with care.
| Cohort | n | Win % | Place % | Avg odds | A/E | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 101 | 13.9% | 41.6% | 7.35 | 0.99 | -4.95% |
| Confirmed | 101 | 13.9% | 41.6% | 7.35 | 0.99 | -4.95% |
| Radar | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| BET | 69 | 14.5% | 42.0% | 7.70 | 1.08 | +3.62% |
| WATCH | 22 | 9.1% | 36.4% | 6.43 | 0.58 | -45.45% |
| PASS | 10 | 20.0% | 50.0% | 6.95 | 1.37 | +25.00% |
| Confirmed × BET | 69 | 14.5% | 42.0% | 7.70 | 1.08 | +3.62% |
| Radar × BET | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Watch Confirmed × BET especially. If it materially outperforms every other cohort over the next 100–200 selections, the compound-signal thesis will have earned its keep. Until then this is data collection, not evidence.
| Date | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 | Pick 4 | Pick 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Monoceros 14:17 Haydock · 11/2 8TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Return To Unit 14:52 Haydock · 8/1 PASS Verify | Yafaarr 16:43 Newcastle (AW) · 11/2 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Kiss Me My Love 16:48 Redcar · 6/1 PASS Verify | Jam Lass 17:23 Redcar · 13/2 7TH PASS Verify |
| Thu 15 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | Valadero 13:32 Brighton · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Dream of Ithaca 15:15 Brighton · 6/1 WATCH Verify | Port Darwin 15:50 Brighton · 15/2 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥇 WON Gone Rogue 16:25 Brighton · 5/1 SP 5/1F PASS Verify | Cuban Grey 16:32 Curragh · 6/1 15TH PASS Verify |
| Wed 14 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Mythical Tale 14:29 Nottingham · 6/1 6TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Kitaro Kich 18:00 Kempton (AW) · 8/1 Verify | Philanthropist 19:00 Kempton (AW) · 11/2 4TH Verify | Charmaine 20:00 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 4TH Verify | Tenison 20:30 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 9TH Verify |
| Tue 13 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Notimetotakeoff 13:24 Leicester · 6/1 Verify | Romidijo 13:54 Leicester · 17/2 7TH Verify | That's Random 15:39 Leicester · 5/1 8TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Francesi 16:14 Leicester · 11/2 WATCH Verify | Kodi Lion 16:47 Leicester · 9/1 5TH Verify |
| Mon 12 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Contrary To Law 14:00 Roscommon · 11/2 SP 7/2F PASS Verify | 🥈 2ND Invincible Crown 15:17 Musselburgh · 6/1 PASS Verify | Raffles Angel 16:24 Yarmouth · 5/1 12TH PASS Verify | Secret Guest 18:30 Newcastle (AW) · 5/1 4TH PASS Verify | Yorkshire 18:45 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 10TH PASS Verify |
| Sun 11 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Wise And Wonderful 14:57 Goodwood · 5/1 BET Verify | Western George 15:12 Chepstow · 11/2 4TH Verify | Comfort Zone 16:15 Naas · 7/1 6TH BET Verify | Cerulean Bay 16:42 Goodwood · 6/1 8TH BET Verify | Ankara 17:25 Naas · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify |
| Sat 10 Oct 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Apulia Bay 13:50 Newmarket · 5/1 BET Verify | Water To Wine 14:05 York · 6/1 16TH Verify | Unauthorized 16:08 Naas · 5/1 11TH WATCH Verify | Minstrel Knight 16:32 York · 8/1 11TH BET Verify | Jeteye 16:55 Hexham · 11/2 5TH Verify |
| Fri 09 Oct 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Harper Violet 14:40 York · 11/2 SP 9/2 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Threelittleangels 16:05 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify | Sekakarma 16:30 Downpatrick · 6/1 12TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Send Harry 18:30 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 SP 100/30 WATCH Verify | Ohailbhic 19:00 Dundalk (AW) · 17/2 7TH BET Verify |
| Thu 08 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Ophelia 13:16 Thurles · 17/2 4TH Verify | Annie Edson Taylor 15:30 Ayr · 10/1 8TH Verify | Blufferonthebus 16:38 Ayr · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Kimy 17:05 Tramore · 17/2 Verify | Edge of Desire 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 17/2 4TH Verify |
| Wed 07 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | What's Enough 14:15 Navan · 12/1 6TH Verify | Dark Whisper 15:29 Nottingham · 6/1 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Edwin Hubble 16:29 Nottingham · 5/1 SP 9/2J WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Roe And Co 16:35 Worcester · 12/1 Verify | Mr Perth 17:18 Navan · 11/2 4TH WATCH Verify |
| Tue 06 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON South Kensington 14:48 Brighton · 13/2 SP 13/2 BET Verify | Maestrow 15:41 Huntingdon · 8/1 7TH Verify | Quantum Power 15:51 Leicester · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Nochebuena 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 Verify | Highfield Comrade 20:30 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 5TH BET Verify |
| Mon 05 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Educator 14:51 Stratford · 15/2 6TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Two To Tango 15:26 Stratford · 6/1 BET Verify | Rebel Reba 16:15 Fairyhouse · 5/1 6TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Magic Box 16:45 Kempton (AW) · 12/1 BET Verify | Magician of Riga 19:00 Wolverhampton (AW) · 11/2 5TH BET Verify |
| Sun 04 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Celtic Alliance 14:45 Killarney · 6/1 4TH BET Verify | Truth Be Told 15:05 Curragh · 11/2 outside WATCH Verify | Space Bear 15:40 Curragh · 14/1 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Uncle Remus 15:45 Uttoxeter · 6/1 BET Verify | Zolpharine 17:05 Killarney · 17/2 7TH BET Verify |
| Sat 03 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Smallcraftwarning 14:30 Gowran Park · 13/2 SP 4/1F BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Realign 15:35 Ascot · 16/1 Verify | Tryst 15:50 Newmarket · 13/2 5TH BET Verify | Maelstrom 16:10 Ascot · 13/2 12TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Guernsey Angel 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 17/2 BET Verify |
| Fri 02 Oct 2026 Read why? → | Glory And Honour 15:23 Hexham · 13/2 6TH BET Verify | Killybegs Jet Lady 15:58 Hexham · 13/2 4TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Ardera Gun 16:16 Gowran Park · 9/1 BET Verify | Come On The Lads 16:50 Gowran Park · 15/2 12TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Near Perfection 20:00 Dundalk (AW) · 12/1 Verify |
| Thu 01 Oct 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Avebury Ring 15:08 Nottingham · 7/1 Verify | 🥇 WON Regional Rock 15:49 Salisbury · 11/2 SP 9/2F BET Verify | Sneddy Eddie 16:30 Bellewstown · 9/1 outside BET Verify | Duke of Luckley 16:35 Southwell · 6/1 4TH BET Verify | Secret Rock 17:05 Bellewstown · 11/1 8TH BET Verify |
| Wed 30 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Monhammer 14:48 Musselburgh · 5/1 SP 5/1 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Mic Drop 15:30 Sligo · 11/2 WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Nascent Star 16:55 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify | 🥇 WON Simple Star 17:08 Musselburgh · 11/2 SP 4/1 BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Rovinia 20:30 Kempton (AW) · 13/2 BET Verify |
| Tue 29 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Two Plus Two 14:32 Bath · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Count Palatine 15:38 Ayr · 17/2 7TH BET Verify | Manton Bay 15:55 Cork · 11/2 pending BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Parisiac 16:40 Ayr · 11/2 BET Verify | The Thames Boatman 17:07 Bath · 6/1 4TH BET Verify |
| Mon 28 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Sonas 13:35 Roscommon · 6/1 5TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Danehill Star 15:15 Brighton · 13/2 Verify | 🥉 3RD Duce Bigalow 15:20 Roscommon · 11/2 WATCH Verify | 🥉 3RD Stipulation 16:22 Wolverhampton (AW) · 5/1 WATCH Verify | Youcansaythatagain 17:25 Down Royal · 13/2 6TH BET Verify |
| Sun 27 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Telegraphic 13:37 Epsom · 6/1 7TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Capability Brown 14:00 Curragh · 13/2 SP 4/1 Verify | Bincimbal 14:12 Epsom · 14/1 5TH Verify | Brussels 14:35 Curragh · 11/2 5TH Verify | Valiancy 16:20 Curragh · 9/1 28TH Verify |
| Sat 26 Sep 2026 2W Read why? → | 🥇 WON Accrual 14:49 Ripon · 8/1 SP 4/1F BET Verify | I'm Next 15:28 Ripon · 7/1 9TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Come What May 16:55 Curragh · 5/1 SP 5/1 Verify | Indemnity 17:30 Market Rasen · 11/2 6TH BET Verify | Be Frank 20:00 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 10TH WATCH Verify |
| Fri 25 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥈 2ND Lizzana 13:15 Newmarket · 7/1 Verify | Gameball 15:25 Listowel · 5/1 6TH WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Anyasi 16:18 Haydock · 5/1 WATCH Verify | 🥈 2ND Gaelic Des Chastys 16:30 Listowel · 13/2 BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Saint Acclaim 17:30 Dundalk (AW) · 13/2 Verify |
| Thu 24 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Rokanako 14:32 Listowel · 13/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Fuel The Jet 15:00 Newmarket · 13/2 SP 13/2 BET Verify | First Ascent 16:17 Listowel · 6/1 12TH BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Sunday River 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 8/1 BET Verify | Bearwith 20:30 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 5TH BET Verify |
| Wed 23 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Dolly Dior 14:47 Perth · 17/2 outside Verify | 🥈 2ND Granlahan 15:05 Listowel · 15/2 BET Verify | Etalon 15:57 Perth · 6/1 5TH Verify | Mister Bluebird 17:00 Goodwood · 10/1 11TH BET Verify | Dontspoilasale 18:30 Kempton (AW) · 5/1 11TH BET Verify |
| Tue 22 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Blackwater Lilly 16:15 Warwick · 11/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND My Boy 16:20 Southwell (AW) · 6/1 Verify | 🥉 3RD Eddie G 16:41 Listowel · 15/2 BET Verify | Politely 16:55 Southwell (AW) · 11/2 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Town Queen 18:30 Southwell (AW) · 15/2 SP 5/1 BET Verify |
| Mon 21 Sep 2026 Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Agitator 13:59 Leicester · 17/2 BET Verify | Rocsane 14:31 Leicester · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Gilded Call 14:38 Ffos Las · 7/1 4TH Verify | Home Hero 16:47 Leicester · 5/1 7TH BET Verify | Faster Bee 18:12 Wolverhampton (AW) · 8/1 8TH BET Verify |
| Sun 20 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | Fantasy Force 14:30 Hamilton · 13/2 7TH BET Verify | Radiator Springs 15:18 Listowel · 5/1 4TH Verify | 🥈 2ND Gower Prince 16:08 Plumpton · 9/1 Verify | 🥇 WON Bradbury 16:30 Hamilton · 12/1 SP 12/1 Verify | Where's My Jet 16:48 Listowel · 11/2 4TH Verify |
| Sat 19 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Deep Havana 14:30 Ayr · 13/2 12TH BET Verify | Capall Rasa 14:47 Newbury · 11/2 9TH WATCH Verify | Far Above Dream 15:40 Ayr · 5/1 11TH WATCH Verify | Dwindling Funds 16:50 Ayr · 11/2 4TH Verify | Vidmiyr 16:52 Chester · 11/2 6TH WATCH Verify |
| Fri 18 Sep 2026 1W Read why? → | 🥉 3RD Little Lady Rock 14:37 Newton Abbot · 15/2 Verify | French Affair 15:40 Ayr · 10/1 5TH BET Verify | 🥇 WON Bintknight 16:40 Newbury · 5/1 SP 11/2 BET Verify | Beat The Devil 19:00 Dundalk (AW) · 5/1 9TH WATCH Verify | Daonethatgotaway 19:30 Dundalk (AW) · 15/2 10TH BET Verify |
| Thu 17 Sep 2026 Read why? → | Cracking Idea 14:45 Yarmouth · 11/2 8TH Verify | 🥉 3RD Mirzimaan 15:15 Yarmouth · 11/2 BET Verify | 🥉 3RD Wecouldavehaditall 16:25 Naas · 6/1 BET Verify | Noble Guest 16:45 Yarmouth · 6/1 9TH BET Verify | 🥈 2ND Rogue Supremacy 19:00 Southwell (AW) · 5/1 BET Verify |