Choose Save as PDF in your browser's print dialog.
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
01 · Cover
The Bloomberg of Horse Racing

The AI-native
racing intelligence
platform.

Every pick recorded. Every result measured.

Saturday Racing publishes AI-generated tips, previews, and long-form race analysis across four distinct editorial brands — with a transparent measurement layer that no other tipping site can match.

Now Live
250+ races analysed / week
300+ AI predictions published / week
£0 marketing spend
INVESTOR OVERVIEW · Q3 2026 PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
02 · The Problem

The Opportunity

Racing content is stuck in 1998.

UK & Irish racing wagering: £13B annual handle. Consumer racing media & tipping (our TAM): ~£250m. Both segments served by products that read, look, and measure the same way they did before the smartphone existed.

Opinion, not evidence.

Tipster columns publish picks with zero public track record. Readers can't tell a 30% strike rate from a 12% one.

Opaque ratings.

RPR, TS, OR — decades-old rating systems that even seasoned punters struggle to explain. The reasoning is a black box.

Formats haven't evolved.

Text-heavy racecards and tabular form guides. No cinematic content. No modern reader would call this an engaging product.

No editorial personality at scale.

One voice per publication. No differentiated content lanes for different reader modes (tip-hungry vs analytical vs casual).

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 02 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
03 · The Solution

What We've Built

An AI-native racing publisher
with radical measurement.

Every piece of content — from a daily tip to a long-form Papers article — is generated by a structured LLM pipeline, rendered through distinctive editorial brands, and measured against actual race results in a public-facing ledger.

AI-generated at scale

One prompt library. Multiple personas. Structured JSON output rendered through eight+ distinct content formats — from a 30-second Pin capsule to a 5,000-word Race Paper.

Measured in public

Every pick recorded automatically. Every result reconciled. Strike rate + ROI dashboards available live — a level of transparency no other tipping site offers.

Multi-brand editorial

Mr Fox (tipster), LLaMa (analytical), Sly Man (bet products), Pinsticker (cinematic previews) — distinct voices allow the same punter to consume in three different modes.

Cinematic UX

GSAP-driven scroll storytelling, race simulations, multiverse heatmaps. Content formats that don't exist elsewhere in racing.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 03 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
04 · AI Pipeline

The Moat

One pipeline. Eight content products.

RACING API Racecards · Runners · Results DATA MODEL 100+ tables · Denormalised for read SIGNAL DERIVATION SR · Fit · Market · Connections PROMPT LIBRARY 4 personas · versioned CLAUDE SONNET 4.6 Prompt caching · Retry guard · Structured JSON out MR FOX'S PICK Daily AI tipping THE DEEP DIVE Race preview + verdict PINSTICKER Cinematic preview (GSAP) RACE PAPERS Multiverse simulation LLAMA LETTERS Long-form analytical MEASUREMENT FEEDBACK

One data pipeline. One LLM contract. One prompt library. Multiple branded content formats. Measurement loop closes the flywheel.

See Appendix A for BoD + Pick Winner engine deep-dives →

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 04 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
05 · Product Suite

Content Products

Eight products. Four brands. One engine.

Y1 growth focus Pick Winner · Bet of the Day · Race Papers. The other formats stay in maintenance mode until revenue mechanics prove out.

Mr Fox's Pick

Daily AI-generated winner selection per race with confidence, reasoning, shortlist, danger & each-way.

MR FOX

The Deep Dive

Rich featured-race preview: 4 archetype picks, comp table for whole field, verdict, dissent from AI Chamber priors.

LLaMa

Pinsticker

7-scene cinematic race preview. GSAP scroll storytelling. Sound design, countdown, verdict quote, bet card.

PINSTICKER

Race Papers

Multiverse simulation with heatmap visualisation. Pace curves, form ribbons, "what-if" scenarios. 7-scene GSAP layer.

LLaMa

LLaMa Letters

Long-form analytical letters, one per race in a featured meeting. Post-race grading against actual result.

LLaMa

Sly Treble

Weekly 3-leg each-way bet with variable EW fractions, per-leg settlement, dead-heat maths, diversity guard.

SLY MAN

Bet of the Day

Daily single bet with SP settlement, tipped price P/L, archive with results reconciliation.

SLY MAN

Cubs

Community layer. Members ("Cubs") make picks, appear on leaderboard, compete with Mr Fox. Retention product.

COMMUNITY
SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 05 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
06 · The DEN

The Consumer Wedge

One interface. Every signal.
Zero cost to serve.

The DEN is Saturday Racing's chat-native concierge — a hybrid deterministic + agentic layer that flattens the whole platform into a single question: what do you want to know? Free Cubs see the signals. Paid Cubs ask LLaMa to investigate why.

CUB QUESTION "Gore Point" · "why?" · "steamers?" THE ROUTER Detects intent · £0 detection layer DIRECT DB Quick Actions · Horse lookup £0 per query LLaMa AGENT Tool loop · Reasoning · Synthesis £0.003–0.009 / query PICKOUTCOME + TURN LEDGER Every reply measured · cost tagged · feedback captured

Every Cub interaction routes through a £0 detection layer BEFORE any Anthropic call. Horse names, quick actions and canned queries resolve deterministically. Only ambiguous questions reach the LLM.

FREE · Facts

£0/mo

Every Saturday signal — Bet of the Day · Horses to Watch · AI Pick · Steamers · Yesterday's results · Horse facts. Sees the signals; can't ask why.

CUB · Interpretation

£8/mo

30 LLaMa investigations/day. Ask why the signals converge. Compare horses. Interrogate form. Full Honest Record. 98% margin per subscriber.

CUB PRO · Deep Query

£15/mo

100/day · Claude Sonnet · long memory · cross-source historical analysis. The upgrade Cubs choose after their first "why does Saturday agree?" moment. 88% margin.

Direct Resolution Rate 60–70%

The unit-economics target. Every point above 60% is a Cub interaction that feels AI while spending zero Anthropic tokens. LLM cost stays flat as the product surface compounds monthly.

The strategic direction: The DEN is the compound-interest engine on top of the content moat. Every new signal Saturday ships becomes a free-tier hook, a paid interrogation target, and a daily habit trigger — automatically. One consumer surface. Every product. Zero marginal cost of surfacing.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 06 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
07 · What's Built

The Engineering

Production-ready platform, early market validation.

A production-grade platform engineered to enterprise standards. The metrics below aren't projections — they're what an acquirer, technical partner, or investor can inspect today.

28
Django Apps
Modular architecture
~70k
Lines of Code
Python business logic
2,688
Automated Tests
Across 147 test files
739
Git Commits
Full audit trail
Backend Python 3.12 · Django 5.x · PostgreSQL · Signal-driven architecture · 90 migrations
AI / LLM Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) · Prompt caching · Structured JSON output · Version-stamped A/B testing · Deterministic fallback
Front-end Server-rendered templates · GSAP scrollytelling · Custom CSS + SVG animations · 279 templates · Zero heavy JS runtime
Data Racing API integration · Horse history joins · Runner odds lifecycle · Denormalized read models · Automated results settlement
Testing + Infra Django test suite · Signal-handler testing · Migration testing · Environment-scoped config · Git-based deploy pipeline
Time Barrier 8–14 months of dedicated engineering for an experienced team to replicate at parity
Approach Test-driven development · Prompt-versioned A/B testing · Migration-tracked schema evolution
Posture Actively iterated · New features informed by user data and measurement dashboards
SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 07 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
08 · Measurement Moat

The Defensible Edge

Continuous model validation is the moat.

Every tipping site claims accuracy. None publish the maths. Saturday Racing's measurement layer is the first honest track record in racing content — and it compounds with every settled race.

01

PickOutcome Ledger

Every AI pick recorded automatically at pick time. Every result reconciled at race-off. Zero manual reporting. Zero cherry-picking.

02

Prompt Versioning

Every pick stamped with SYSTEM_PROMPT hash (currently v3). Prompt changes become A/B-testable across strike rate + ROI cohorts.

03

Cohort Analysis

Strike rate + ROI broken down by confidence tier × field size × race type × source × prompt version. Live analytics dashboard.

04

Signal-Aligned Calibration

Confidence labels post-processed by hard sanity rules + signal alignment count. High confidence requires evidence, not opinion.

05

Deterministic Fallback

Never publish a hallucinated pick. Two-tier LLM validation + composite fallback. Every pick is a real horse in a real race.

06

Public "Honest Record"

Roadmap: Reader-facing subset of the dashboard. Rolling strike rate + ROI at advised prices. Trust signal at scale.

Token Economics Prompt caching + structured JSON + deterministic fallback keep per-pick LLM cost under 1p at 100k users — the AI margin story scales without server-cost surprises.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 08 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
09 · Traction

Where We Are

Behavioural engagement, zero marketing spend.

Saturday Racing has been built in public, launched quietly, and grown organically. Registration counts alone under-sell the story — the behavioural signals below are the real proof that the concept resonates.

Preliminary snapshot · GA4 verified before Q1 pitching

~1,000
Registered Users
£0 to date · £240k Y1 plan (Slide 12)
~350
Monthly Active
Last 30 days · ~35% of base
4m 41s
Avg Session
Content-driven engagement
31%
Returning Visitors
30-day rolling

Platform Output / week ~250 races analysed · ~300 predictions published · £0 marketing spend · +22% MoM organic traffic · ~38% newsletter open rate

What's Built & Live

Full AI pipeline · Racing API integration · Results settlement · PickOutcome measurement ledger · Prompt versioning · Analytics dashboards (staff-gated) · Cinematic front-end · Multi-persona editorial system · Cubs community + leaderboard

What's Next

Months 3–6 post-close: Public "Honest Record" page · First bookmaker affiliate partnership · Subscription tier launch (freemium → premium tips) · Growth marketing pilot · Prompt v4 targeting 30%+ strike rate on High confidence tier (approximately the strike rate of blindly backing the SP favourite)

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 09 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
10 · Business Model

Revenue Streams

Five paths to revenue. Two ready to switch on.

STREAM 01 · READY

Bookmaker Affiliates

Every tip page can carry deep-links to major bookmakers with rev-share on new depositing customers. Typical rate: £30–£100 per NDC. Fastest path to first revenue.

STREAM 02 · READY

Freemium Subscriptions

Free tier: Mr Fox's Pick + Fox's Wire news. Paid tier (£8–£15/mo): Deep Dives, Papers, Letters, Sly Treble, honest record. Retention-driven by measurement + community.

STREAM 03 · Q1 2027

Sponsorship

Racing brands (racecourses, breeding operations, trainers) as named sponsors of specific content lanes — "The William Hill Big Race" style syndication.

STREAM 04 · Q2 2027

Data + IP Licensing

PickOutcome dataset + prompt library licensable to bookmakers / racing media as a white-label AI content engine. Rare asset — few racing companies have measurement infrastructure this deep.

STREAM 05 · Q3 2027

Content Syndication

Race Papers & LLaMa Letters as licensed content for racing media partners. AI-generated but editorially graded — a rare combination in a syndication market.

STREAM 06 · FUTURE

Bet Aggregation

Optional white-label bet placement layer with bookmaker integrations. High-friction to build but highest LTV per user. Long-term option, regulatory dependent.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 10 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
11 · The Roadmap

The 24-Month Plan · Plus Optionality

Two years to earn Year 3.

This raise funds Year 1 and Year 2 execution. Year 1 turns readers into competitors; Year 2 turns competitors into subscribers. Long-term, the audience becomes a peer-to-peer liquidity pool — contingent on Y1–Y2 traction and follow-on capital.

Zero Regulatory Drag · Y1–Y2
Saturday Racing operates strictly as a media publisher & affiliate provider throughout Y1–Y2 — no UK Gambling Commission licence required. Runway is shielded from regulatory drag. Only the long-term P2P optionality would need UKGC + fresh capital + separate compliance prep.
YEAR 1

The Fox's Pick 6 competition

Weekly Pick 6 where Cubs select six horses across a Saturday card and compete directly against Mr Fox. Winners take real prizes — cash pool, racecourse hospitality, sponsor gifts. The game becomes the growth engine.

Investment LOW–MED
Build Leaderboard exists — adds prize infrastructure + sponsor BD + weekly settlement flow
Timing Launch in first 6 months post-raise

→ 5–10× active user growth · First sponsorship revenue · Passive readers become weekly competitors

YEAR 2

Subscription + affiliate scale

Freemium tier converts to premium at £8–15/mo. Multiple bookmaker affiliates live. Public Honest Record ships as a live trust signal. Growth marketing scales. Data-licensing conversations open with racing media + bookmakers.

Investment MEDIUM
Build Paywall + churn tooling · Growth team hire · Affiliate integrations · Editorial hire
Timing Months 12–24

→ Target £10–30k MRR · 15–30k registered users · positioned for institutional follow-on

LONG-TERM

Peer-to-peer betting — optionality

Once Y1 audience and Y2 subscription base are proven, a Cub-vs-Cub P2P betting layer is the natural extension. Requires UKGC licence + fresh capital — not funded by this raise. Presented as strategic optionality, not a Y3 commitment.

Status OPTIONALITY
Unlock Contingent on Y2 metrics + follow-on capital + regulatory readiness
Timing Only if Y1–Y2 execution earns the right to build it

→ Category redefinition potential · Strategic exit optionality

See top callout for regulatory positioning. The long-term P2P optionality would require UKGC Betting Exchange licensing + dedicated compliance capability + a separate capital round — nothing about this raise depends on it.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 11 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
12 · Growth Forecast

The 3-Year User Path

Base 50k · Upside 100k · Exceptional 150k.

Starting from ~1,000 organic users, three catalysts drive step-change acquisition through Y1–Y3. Base case reaches ~50k users by end-Y3; the upside path reaches 100k with strong paid-acquisition efficiency; exceptional execution unlocks 150k+.

0 40k 80k 120k 160k REGISTERED USERS Now Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11 Q12 YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 Now: 1k Y1 · 7k Y2 · 22k Y3 · 50k UPSIDE · 100k EXCEPTIONAL · 150k ▲ PICK 6 LAUNCH ▲ SUBSCRIPTION ▲ GROWTH SCALE ▲ VIRAL LOOP MECHANIC Pick 6 = leaderboard share Each entry surfaced to peers — drives Y2–Y3 acquisition curvature SCENARIOS Base · 50k Upside · 100k Exceptional · 150k
YEAR 1 · BASE
5–10k
Users

7× from launch base · Pick 6 competition + sponsor inbound + first paid acquisition

YEAR 2 · BASE
15–30k
Users

3× from Y1 · Subscription tier + affiliate BD + growth marketing scale

YEAR 3 · BASE
50k
Users

Retention + paid-acquisition scale · Upside 100k · Exceptional 150k with best-in-class CAC

Base case assumes seed round closes Q1, Pick 6 launches Q3, subscription tier ships Q5, and organic + paid acquisition compound through Y2–Y3. Upside case requires best-in-class paid-acquisition efficiency + strong affiliate-driven conversion. Exceptional case additionally requires viral / editorial breakout moments.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 12 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
13 · Go-to-Market

Year 1 · Go-to-Market

Four channels. One acquisition engine.

35%
Performance

Performance media & SEO

Scales with results.

  • Google/Meta paid + racing-intent SEO
  • Bookmaker affiliate CPA (Bet365 · Sky · Paddy)
35%
Brand

Category-defining brand build

Air cover for the AI story.

  • Racing TV + on-course sponsorship (4 tracks)
  • Racing Post display + Weekender print
20%
Partnerships

Rev-share, not cash-out

Borrow the audience.

  • Podcast host-reads (Nick Luck · RP · ATR)
  • Racing Post "AI Verdict" column
10%
Prizes · Referrals

Self-liquidating loops

Near-zero CAC.

  • Cubs pick-a-race raffle + bookmaker-funded prizes
  • Refer-a-mate premium unlock
Year 1 Hero Moves 3 SIGNATURE PLAYS
Cubs at Cheltenham & Royal Ascot On-course pick-a-race + raffle — brand & acquisition in one hit.
"AI vs the Tipsters" campaign Public strike-rate leaderboard vs Racing Post regulars. Free PR + retention.
Bookmaker CPA network 3+ affiliate deals live by Q2 — paid acquisition without depleting cash.
SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 13 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
14 · Team & Platform

Year 1 · Engineering Resource

Seven roles. One product line. Ready for 100k users.

Role FTE Owns Y1 Hero Deliverable
AI / Data Engineer 1.0 Prompt registry · evals · calibration · Racing API pipelines Backtest harness + published strike-rate proof
Backend Lead 1.0 Django architecture · models · integrations · community backend Bookmaker CPA + Racing API scale + live-chat infra
Growth Marketing Manager 1.0 Paid channels · affiliate BD · SEO · lifecycle & referral loops 3+ bookmaker CPAs live + 5–10k user CAC proof
Frontend Lead 1.0 Cinematic products (Papers, Pinsticker, Preview) · GSAP Mobile-first cinematic · sub-second render
Frontend Engineer 1.0 Product surfaces · design-system implementation Design system rolled across 8 products
Product Designer 0.51.0 Design tokens · brand cohesion · editorial polish Tokenised design language + UI refresh
DevOps / SRE 0.31.0 Uptime · deploys · DB perf · cloud cost 99.9% SLA · 100k-user autoscaling
Y1 Team Ramp Q1 start 5.8 FTE · Q4 end 6.5 FTE · Fractional-first for capital discipline
100k-USER PLATFORM

No re-platform needed

Django + Postgres already handles the load. Bottleneck is ops maturity, not stack.

COMMUNITY CHAT

Discord first, custom later

Racing community is already there. Move on-platform in Y2 only if data proves engagement pull-through.

UI POLISH

Design system, not more hands

3-month design sprint → tokens + editorial refresh. Frontend team enforces going forward.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 14 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
15 · Competitive Position

The Field

We compete on a dimension nobody else does.

Incumbents lead on brand authority, distribution, and data depth. We lead on AI-native content architecture and measurement transparency — dimensions the incumbents can't easily replicate.

Capability Racing Post Attheraces Timeform Saturday Racing
AI-native content pipeline ~
Distribution + audience scale ← our gap · Slide 12 addresses this ✓✓ ✓✓
Public strike-rate + ROI ledger
Prompt-versioned A/B testing
Multi-brand editorial voices ~
Cinematic scroll formats
Deep historical ratings archive ✓✓ ✓✓ ~

Distribution is our known gap — the Year 1 GTM plan on Slide 14 is the answer. The AI-native architecture + measurement moat are genuinely differentiated: difficult to replicate without significant investment and architectural change.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 15 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
16 · Leadership

The Founder

Built solo. Now scaling deliberately.

Vas Rabani, Founder & CEO
Founder & CEO
Vas Rabani
18 moSolo build
70kLines of code
739Commits
2,688Automated tests
8Live products
£0External capital

30+ years immersed in horse racing — a punter's understanding of the market baked into every layer of the product. 10 years as a senior Product Manager with a strong engineering background that let him build Saturday Racing solo: architecting, coding, designing and shipping 8 branded AI-native products end to end. The rare founder who is his own domain expert, product lead and engineering team.

James Power, Fractional CFO
Senior Fractional CFO · 0.5 FTE
James Power

Senior finance leader and qualified accountant with a track record guiding early-stage founder-led startups from seed through institutional funding. Hands-on across cap-table discipline, board reporting, and investor governance. Focus at Saturday Racing: closing this seed round, monthly board packs from day one, and preparing the business for Series A.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 16 / 17
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
17 · The Ask

Investment Round

£1.2m seed to fund Year 1.

The technology is built. This raise funds the team on Slide 15, the Year 1 GTM mix on Slide 14, and 18 months of runway to seed-to-Series-A metrics — strike-rate proof, 10k+ users, and 2+ bookmaker affiliate deals live.

Raising

£1.2M

At £3.6M pre-money · 25% dilution · 18-month runway

Structure: £250k SEIS + £950k EIS · advance assurance Q1

Investment buys these Y1 milestones:

50% · £600k Ship Pick 6, subscription tier + Honest Record by Q3 — 6-person engineering team (Slide 13)
20% · £240k 5–10k users + 2+ bookmaker deals + initial target £8–15k MRR — 4-pillar GTM mix (Slide 12)
17% · £204k Close this round + monthly board packs + Series A prep — CEO £90k + senior fractional CFO 0.5 FTE
8% · £96k 99.9% uptime + 100k-user-ready infrastructure — cloud + licences + SEIS/EIS compliance
5% · £60k Milestone-slippage buffer — reserve

Target Milestones (18mo)

  • Y1 Pick 6 competition live with real prizes
  • 5,000–10,000 registered users
  • Initial target £8–15k monthly recurring revenue
  • 25%+ pick strike rate over 1,000+ picks (approximately the strike rate of blindly backing the SP favourite)
  • 2+ bookmaker affiliate deals live
  • Zero UKGC dependency — Y1–Y2 as media + affiliate
  • Public Honest Record shipping trust signal
  • Positioned for institutional follow-on
Illustrative 3-year projection Series A raise targeted month 15 to fund Y3
Y1
Revenue£30k
Op costs£790k
Net burn−£760k
Y2
Revenue£150k
Op costs£980k
Net burn−£830k
Y3 · post-Series A
Revenue£550k
Op costs£1.81m
Net burn−£1.26m

[Founder / Team names + brief bios] · [Contact: name@saturday-racing.com] · [Website: saturday-racing.com] · Private and confidential. Not an offer of securities. Financial projections are indicative and depend on execution + market conditions.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW 17 / 17 · END
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
APPENDIX
For Diligence

Appendix

The engines, in detail.

Deep-dive slides documenting how Bet of the Day, Pick Winner, Horses to Watch and LLaMa Letters work end-to-end — from data ingestion through deterministic scoring, LLM reasoning, guardrails, calibration, and measurement feedback.

Reference material for technical diligence — not required to buy the story.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW APPENDIX
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
A1 · BoD Engine

Bet of the Day — Pipeline Deep-Dive

From ~500 runners to one bet in eight steps.

1 UNIVERSE All UK/IRE runners racing today DECS+ not scratched 2 FILTER Odds + field size + handicap gates 2.5–12.0 dec 6–24 runners 3 FEATURES 7 weighted plugins Score 0–10 each Speed · Form · Class Market · Going · Draw 4 COMPOSITE Weighted sum → single 0–10 score Per-feature deltas from 5.0 baseline 5 RANK Sort by composite Top-6 shortlist Selection = #1 Gap vs #2 held 6 CONVICTION HIGH ≥ 7.5 +gap 0.4 MED ≥ 6.0 · else SPEC Clamped: odds > 11 or field > 16 7 VALUE EDGE Implied prob vs calibrated win % EV per unit stake Overround-stripped 8 NARRATIVE Sly Man headline + deck + verdict Persist DailyBet + PickOutcome bridge FEATURE CONTRIBUTIONS · example POSITIVE ▶ NEGATIVE ◀ vs 5.0 baseline 5.0 Speed +1.40 Form +0.90 Market move +0.60 Class change +0.30 Draw –0.20 Σ COMPOSITE 7.90 BET OF THE DAY · TODAY HIGHLAND REEL 15:35 Ascot · Handicap · 12 runners HIGH CONVICTION 7.9 COMPOSITE 5/1 ODDS +18% VALUE EDGE 32% WIN PROB MEASUREMENT FLYWHEEL · The Moat Every pick recorded → every result graded → weights re-tuned → next Saturday is smarter. A Pick → PickOutcome B Race settles · won / placed / lost C /analytics/ · strike-rate + P/L D Re-weight features · v-hash bumps FEEDBACK LOOP

Eight deterministic steps, one calibrated LLM narrative. The moat is the loop — every bet becomes training data for the next.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW A1 / 3
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
A2 · Pick Winner Engine

Pick Winner — Pipeline Deep-Dive

Data ▸ Deterministic ▸ AI ▸ Guardrails ▸ Published.

1 DATA 100+ data points per runner Racecards · Form SR · Trainer · Going 2 SCORE 7 deterministic ratings ranked SR · Pace · Draw Course · Trainer 3 FILTER Eliminate no-hopers Top 3–5 shortlist Out-of-form · bad fit · long odds 4 PROMPT Structured JSON race + runner tables Cached · v2 · pinned Token-optimised 5 REASON Claude Sonnet 4.6 picks · explains · why One winner + gap + confidence rationale 6 VALIDATE Guard against hallucinated horses In-field check Odds sanity · retry 7 CALIBRATE Clamp confidence by price + field + gap HIGH · MEDIUM SPECULATIVE 8 PUBLISH Website · Racecards App · Newsletter · API Delivered to 1000s of punters DETERMINISTIC SHORTLIST · example Ranked BEFORE the AI sees the field · top 5 → Claude RANK HORSE SR ODDS STATUS #1 Highland Reel 158 3/1 ◆ SELECTED #2 Order Of St George 148 5/1 #3 Cracksman 145 8/1 #4 Almanzor 142 12/1 TODAY'S PICK · SATURDAY HIGHLAND REEL 15:35 Ascot · Class 3 Handicap · 12 runners HIGH CONFIDENCE 158 SR RATING #1 CHAMBER RANK 3/1 ODDS 4 / 5 SIGNALS ALIGNED DETERMINISTIC FALLBACK · The Safety Net If Claude fails validation or confidence drops too low, the highest-ranked deterministic runner is auto-selected — a pick always ships. AI FAILS · LOW CONF Hallucination · retry cap · < MED DETERMINISTIC #1 Highest weighted score wins PICK ALWAYS PUBLISHED pick_source telemetry tagged SAFETY NET

Deterministic scoring picks the field. Claude picks the winner. Guardrails guarantee delivery. The fallback is the guarantee — every race gets a pick, every pick gets measured.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW A2 / 3
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
A3 · Horses to Watch Algorithm

Horses to Watch — Story-Score Engine + Learning Loop

From today's declared runners to five worth watching.

1 INPUT Today's declared runners Race + form + SR + odds Runner · Race · Horse HorseResult · Featured 2 SCORE SIGNALS 10 independent detectors Graded 1–5 by evidence Form · Market · Connections Class · Course · Kit 3 STORY SCORE Σ triggered signal weights + confluence bonus (+4) Min threshold: 4 pts Below = "no story" 4 TOP 5 · DEDUPED Sort by story score One horse per race Editorial diversity across 5 races 5 LLM NARRATE Sly Man writes 5 stories Structured signal data only Deterministic fallback on LLM failure 10 INDEPENDENT SIGNALS · empirically weighted CALIBRATED FROM 6-MONTH BACKTEST · 3,342 HISTORICAL RUNS # SIGNAL W SIGNAL W 1 🦊 Fox's Pick 5 6 🏇 Hot Jockey (30d) 1–5 2 🔥 Hot Streak (last 3) 3–4 7 🎩 Hot Trainer (30d) 1–5 3 🏁 Course Winner 2–3 8 🎯 First-time Headgear 2 4 ⭐ SR near career best 4 9 📈 Steamer (market move) 4 5 🌱 Returning Fresh (60–200d) 3 10 🧠 Top SR on card 1–4 🎯 CONFLUENCE BONUS · when signals align 4+ independent signals fire on the same horse → flat +4 bonus · empirical lift 2.36× baseline (leak-fixed backtest) 🛡 POINT-IN-TIME INTEGRITY · rules enforced by tests Historical replays see only ``race_date < today``. Jockey / trainer 30d stats exclude the race being scored. 🔄 BACKTESTING & LEARNING · The Moat Every pick recorded → every race settled → weights recalibrated from measured lift. Not the best signals we imagined — the best signals the data actually proves. HISTORICAL REPLAY score_runner() over 6mo of races PICKOUTCOME LEDGER Every pick + signal breakdown saved MEASURE LIFT Per-signal strike rate vs baseline RECALIBRATE Weights follow the data, not intuition

The algorithm doesn't pick winners — it finds the five horses today with the strongest evidence across multiple independent signals, and tells the story. Empirically calibrated. Point-in-time correct. Continuously learning.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW A3 / 3
SATURDAY RACING RACING · DECODED
A4 · LLaMa Letters Algorithm

LLaMa Letters — Deterministic Scoring Engine → AI Editorial Analysis

The pick is calculated. The prose is written.

1 RACE INPUT Declared runners Race · form · SR · odds Jockey · trainer · going Course · class · draw Race · Runner · HorseResult 2 ACTIVE FILTER Real runners only status ∈ decs_48hrs, decs_7days Excludes NR, scratched Enforced at input AND output No hallucinated horses 3 FEATURE SCORING 7 deterministic scorers Each returns raw score [-3, +3] + availability flag + explanation Weighted by measured lift Shared with Bet of the Day 4 COMPOSITE SCORE 0 – 10 scale Σ(score × weight) / Σ weight Missing features SKIPPED (not zeroed → no bias) Composite = 5.0 + drivers 5 CONTRIBUTIONS Positive · negative Top 3 positive drivers + top 2 negative drivers per horse, per race Why we like / dislike 6 SHORTLIST · CONVICTION Top 6 · derived band HIGH ≥ 7.0 & gap ≥ 0.4 MEDIUM ≥ 5.8 SPECULATIVE otherwise Calculated · not asked 7 CONSENSUS 3-source alignment CONSENSUS all agree SPLIT 2 of 3 differ CONTRARIAN LLaMa alone LLaMa vs BoD vs Mr Fox 8 PROMPT BUILDING Structured evidence Top 6 + composites Positive + negative drivers Conviction · Fox pick Cache-optimised system prompt 9 LLM EDITORIAL Claude Sonnet 4-6 Writes over the evidence Structured JSON output Explicit dissent contract Analyst · not decision-maker 10 VALIDATE · PERSIST Audit-replayable Enforce active runners Store shortlist snapshot Locked after editor save research_log JSONField ⚙ FEATURE SCORING ENGINE · shared with Bet of the Day One scorer per file. Weights relative — sum-normalised in composite. Missing features skipped, not zeroed. 🏁 SPEED Best-figure trend · career-best proximity 1.5 📈 MARKET MOVE Overnight to on-day price shortening 1.6 📝 FORM Recent finish momentum · beaten distances 1.2 🏆 CLASS CHANGE Class step-up / drop from last outing 1.0 🌦 GOING FIT Strike rate on today’s ground 0.8 👥 TRAINER STRIKE 14-day strike-rate signal 0.8 🎯 DRAW Stall bias for distance / going combo 0.5 Same scored features as Bet of the Day (composite → conviction → ROI backtest). One engine. Two products. Auditable across both. 🧭 CONSENSUS · three sources, one editorial signal CONSENSUS LLaMa = BoD = Fox All three agree SPLIT OPINION 2 of 3 differ Two ways to see it CONTRARIAN LLaMa alone Model + Fox agree against her 🗺 ROADMAP · production-grade uplifts The reviewer’s remaining production-grade asks are two additions to the same engine — not a rebuild. PHASE 3 Deterministic pace signal Classify each runner LED · PROMINENT · MIDFIELD · HELD-UP from historical position-at-call. Race-level pace pressure feeds the composite. Claude explains the map, does not invent it. PHASE 4 Learned conviction thresholds Fit HIGH/MEDIUM cutoffs from graded corpus (~200 letters). Replace hard-coded 7.0 / 0.4 defaults.

LLaMa is no longer the decision-maker — she is an editorial layer explaining a deterministic model. Every letter is measurable, testable, and auditable end-to-end. Deterministic scoring engine · AI editorial analysis · evidence-backed racing letters.

SATURDAY RACING · INVESTOR OVERVIEW A4 / 1