The Deep Dive: Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) — York 15:35
Bacio's RPR of 122 towers over this field and three successive wins make the 63-day absence the only serious question — at 7/2 in an open Group 1, that question is already priced in.
Course note Wide galloping left-hander — best horse usually wins, no track quirk to hide behind.
The Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes is the fastest five furlongs in the British calendar — £340,260 at stake, Group 1 honour on the line, and an 18-runner field that ranges from a top-rated American raider to journeymen hoping the open nature of the race masks their limitations. Good to Soft at York suits the galloping horse over the flat-out specialist, and with no draw bias to hide behind, the ratings hierarchy should assert itself.
The Pace Map
Eighteen runners over five furlongs on a good-to-soft surface means the early exchanges will be furious and the middle portion of the race almost certainly chaotic. Cover Up and Redorange have both shown front-running tendencies, and Night Raider from stall two will be asked to go from the off. With American Affair and Mission Central likely to be ridden positively by their respective jockeys, there is genuine pace throughout — which suits closers in theory, but York's straight five does not favour horses that lose ground in the stampede. The wide runners drawn in the teens face the longest journey and at this level, any ground given away is rarely recovered.
The Other Lenses
The Four Picks
Bacio
3/1 1stJ: Juan J Hernandez · T: Wesley A Ward
The ratings case here is not close. Bacio's RPR of 122 is the highest figure in the field by four pounds, with Night Raider's 118 the next best among the principals. Four wins from five starts — including three in succession — gives a form arc that points firmly upward, and Wesley Ward's three-year-olds have proven capable of travelling across the Atlantic and winning at the highest level in Britain before. The only credible objection is the 63-day gap since his last run, and Ward's string are typically trained hard at home between starts rather than raced into form. Juan Hernandez takes the ride and carries 9st 13lb, which is actually favourable compared to the 141lb burdens many rivals must shoulder. Three of three independent model lenses converged on him at some stage of their analysis, and the market has him as a clear favourite at 7/2 — a price that looks entirely fair for a horse whose ceiling is demonstrably above what he meets here.
- RPR 122 — field-high by 4lb
- Won 4 of last 5, 3 in succession
- Carries 9-13 vs 10-1 for most rivals
Night Raider
17/2 6thJ: James Doyle · T: K. R. Burke
Night Raider's RPR of 118 is the second-highest figure in an 18-runner Group 1 and he arrives at 12/1 — a price that reflects the market's hesitation rather than the ratings arithmetic. K R Burke's five-year-old has won twice in his last five starts, has the trip and going on his cv, and James Doyle from stall two will have every opportunity to bowl along and make it a test of stamina as much as outright speed. The 141lb burden is shared by a stack of rivals, so it is not a differentiator — it is simply the price of admission at this level from the older-horse division.
- RPR 118 — 2nd highest in the field
- 2 wins from last 5, trip/going ticked
- 12/1 with Doyle from low stall 2
Starlust
14/1 2ndJ: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett
The loud signal here is the market. Starlust is listed at 20/1 yet has attracted a strict-majority steaming move — the only runner in the field to show that pattern according to the story signals. His RPR of 115 is the third-highest in the field among the non-favourites, and Rossa Ryan from a central draw in stall ten gives him a fair pitch in a big field. The five-race losing run is the obvious concern, but RPR figures of 115 suggest the ability is there — this might be the race where the market knows something the formbook doesn't fully capture.
- RPR 115 — 3rd highest among outsiders
- Sole strict-majority steamer in the field
- 20/1 despite top-5 RPR rating
Mission Central
8/1 16thJ: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien
If Bacio underperforms after the 63-day absence, Mission Central is the most obvious candidate to fill the void. The King Charles III Stakes victory over Rayevka is the standout piece of direct Group 1 five-furlong form in the race, and Ryan Moore at 33% strike rate over the last 30 days is the hottest jockey in the field by some distance. Three wins from five starts, back-to-back victories prior to the most recent run, and the Ballydoyle infrastructure behind him all speak to a horse who could easily re-find his best. At 17/2 with Moore aboard from stall seven, he represents decent each-way insurance alongside a straight win stake on Bacio.
- Ryan Moore 33% SR last 30 days
- Group 1 winner over C&D (King Charles III)
- 17/2 — value if Bacio stalls post-break
Bacio is the play. RPR 122, three successive wins, a favourable weight of 9st 13lb compared to the 141lb packs the older horses carry, and Ward's record with well-travelled sprinters earns him the benefit of the doubt on the 63-day gap — that is already priced into the 7/2. Night Raider at 12/1 each-way is the value play alongside him, RPR 118 second in the field and drifting in the market for reasons that do not hold up to ratings scrutiny. If you need insurance on Bacio's absence, Mission Central with Ryan Moore at 33% strike rate is the logical single win bet rather than playing into Rayevka at 4/1, which looks demonstrably short given Mission Central beat her last time they met. Starlust at 20/1 is worth a small each-way flutter on the market move alone.
The Field Rated
- BACK Bacio 3/1 RPR 122 is the field's ceiling, three successive wins provide the form arc, and 9-13 is a weight advantage over most rivals — the 63-day gap is the market's excuse to offer 7/2 in a race he should dominate. 1st
- BACK Mission Central 8/1 A P O'Brien and Ryan Moore at 33% SR combine with Group 1 King Charles III form over this trip — 17/2 is the insurance price if Bacio's absence costs him. 16th
- BACK Night Raider 17/2 RPR 118 is second in the field and 12/1 with Doyle from stall two gives excellent each-way value in a wide-open renewal. 6th
- WATCH Starlust 14/1 The only strict-majority steamer in the field at 20/1 with RPR 115 — the market knows something the formbook's five-race losing run doesn't fully explain. 2nd
- WATCH Rayevka 5/1 Group 1 runner-up last time and RPR 113 gives solid claims at 4/1, but a 66-day absence and a second behind Mission Central suggests the pecking order is already established. 5th
- WATCH Cover Up 18/1 The Crisford yard fires at 28% SR and Cover Up won last time out, but OR 109 and 141lb from stall 15 in an 18-runner Group 1 are difficult obstacles at this level. 9th
- WATCH American Affair 7/1 Won last time out at York (course form ticked) but RPR 108 sits well below the principals, and a patchy five-start record including two unplaced runs dims the case at 15/2. 12th
- WATCH Rumstar 20/1 RPR 116 and a win two back followed by a second last time — Rumstar is quietly well-placed on form but 141lb and 14/1 in an 18-runner sprint tests patience. 3rd
- OPPOSE Asfoora 12/1 Winless in five, OR 108 ranks tenth of eighteen, and 7/1 for a mare who hasn't won since God-knows-when is the market's nostalgia — oppose. 8th
- OPPOSE Pershaada 10/1 Mr Fox's selection, but RPR 100 and OR 106 rank her among the lowest in the field — winning last time at two years old does not automatically translate to beating RPR 122 at Group 1 level. 14th
- OPPOSE Time For Sandals 25/1 RPR 111 is respectable but winless in five and a distant 22/1 — third last time out offers slim encouragement in the Nunthorpe against this quality. 4th
- OPPOSE Jm Jungle 33/1 Winless in five, 12th of 18 on ratings, and 141lb from stall 16 in an 18-runner Group 1 — the third two starts back is not enough to build a case at this level. 7th
- OPPOSE Redorange 25/1 Won last time out but RPR 104 ranks him 13th of 18, and stall 18 at York over five furlongs in a Group 1 is ground ceded before the stalls open. 11th
- OPPOSE Partisan Hero 80/1 14th of 18 on ratings, a seventh last time out, and 141lb from stall 17 — the York course win is historical comfort rather than current evidence. 15th
- OPPOSE Azure Angel 150/1 OR 103 and RPR 97 rank her at the foot of the field — Tudhope and Bethell's 21-25% strike rates cannot compensate for the ratings deficit in a Group 1. 17th
- OPPOSE Fitzella 80/1 RPR 103, winless in five, and a string of fifths — the low draw in stall one is the only positive in a profile that ranks 15th of 18. 18th
- OPPOSE Ain't Nobody 40/1 Winless in five, no story signals, 66 days off — OR 104 and a form line of 07-090 make this a straightforward opposition case at 80/1. 13th
- OPPOSE Heavenly Heather 80/1 Lowest RPR in the field (96), winless in six, and no story signals — the 41-day break and a second three starts back is as good as it gets, which is not good enough. 10th