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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qatar Racing) (Group 1)
Mr Fox’s call
Gstaad
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Gstaad (SR 138, 5/2) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — the only runner above SR 130 with both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed on today's Good ground at Ascot, where he also holds Course:W1P2. Ryan Moore, the yard's first-string booking at 24% career strike rate, is a strong signal that O'Brien's stable regards this as their number-one in the race over stablemate Hawk Mountain (SR 96, Colin Keane). The market has shortened 9% since opening, underlining steady confidence, and at 3 years old carrying 9-3 he has a weight advantage over the older horses. The MarkMv:+5 is the one caution — he runs off a mark 5lb above his last win — but at Group 1 level that is marginal against the SR gap separating him from the field. Each-way alternative: Rayif. Main danger: Rayif — Rayif (SR 131, 5/1) is trained by Graffard who strikes at 31% — the highest trainer strike rate in the field — and his form reads 13-151, with a recent win; the only concern is DistFit:? and GoingFit:? suggesting unknown unknowns on this track and ground, but if he handles both he is a serious threat at a price.
Full result
Winner: Talk Of New York (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Talk of New York Fox #3 7/2
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2
Ten Bob Tony Fox #4 15/2
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3
Rayif Fox #2 7/1
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4
Needle Match 100/1
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5
Zavateri 11/1
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6
Docklands 28/1
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7
More Thunder 11/2
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8
Gstaad Fox #1 5/2
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9
Dancing Gemini 80/1
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10
Zeus Olympios 17/2
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11
Hawk Mountain 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Gstaad 5/2 8TH
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2
Rayif 5/1 🥉 3RD
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3
Talk of New York 7/2 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
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4
Ten Bob Tony 7/1 🥈 2ND