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Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Paddy's Day
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Paddy's Day (SR:86, 11/4) is the joint-highest SR in the field alongside Sports Coach and Leading Times, but carries the strongest combination of signals: seven wins and ten places at Newcastle specifically (Course:W7P10) makes this a course specialist of the highest order at a track where course form is highly predictive on AW. The market has backed this up with a 14% move inward — the sharpest steaming in the field — and a drop of 8lb in the mark (MarkMv:-8) since last win hands a significant weight advantage over rivals on similar ratings. The tongue-tie (HG:t) is a first-time application which is worth noting as a potential variable, though the course record dwarfs any concern. At 11/4 in a Class 4 sprint with seven course wins, the case is clear. Each-way alternative: Leading Times. Main danger: Sports Coach — Sports Coach (SR:84) has been heavily backed at 44% inward market move and carries the lowest weight in the leading group at 9-3, which could offset its going and distance concerns if the AW surface plays more forgivingly than the GoingFit:- flag suggests.
Full result
Winner: Emerald Harmony (IRE) at SP 12/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Emerald Harmony 9/1
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2
Kinetic Force Fox #4 5/1
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3
Paddy's Day Fox #1 11/2
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4
Grandlad 40/1
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5
Curious Rover 40/1
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6
Leading Times Fox #2 17/2
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7
Sports Coach Fox #3 9/2
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8
Venture Capital 6/1
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9
Temple of Athena 7/1
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10
Dolos Dream 15/2
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11
Little Mi Mi 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4