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Mr Fox’s call
Urchin
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 SP 100/30 Est. 25%
Mr Fox says
Urchin (SR:91, 4/1, Wgt:9-3) is the K.R. Burke yard's second string but carries the lightest weight of the three 3-year-olds and has been dramatically backed — Mkt:in39% is a substantial market move that demands respect. Clifford Lee takes the ride for a stable operating at 20% strike rate, and the form figure of '7' last time is explained by the step up in grade (ClassMv:= today suggests a level return), while the prior '1-2' figures show genuine ability. High Storm is the yard's #1 by SR (94 vs 91) but carries 3lb more and has drifted to 7/4 — no market support to complement the price tag — while stepping up in class (ClassMv:↑1) on unproven going at an unproven trip. Urchin's weight advantage and the significant late money make it the more compelling selection in a race where all six runners are untested at 1m6f on Heavy (every runner shows DistFit:? and GoingFit:?), meaning the horse in form-condition with market confidence edges the decision. Each-way alternative: High Storm. Main danger: High Storm — High Storm has the top SR in the field (94), a 20%-strike-rate trainer and Billy Loughnane aboard, and his recent '1' on the form string shows he can win races — despite stepping up in class and carrying 3lb more than Urchin, he remains a serious threat if the market simply undervalued him.
Full result
Winner: Urchin (GB) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Urchin Fox #1 11/4
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2
Loki 9/1
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3
Gone By 10/3
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4
Phantom Recon 13/2
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5
Yaa Min Fox #3 7/4
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High Storm Fox #2 13/8
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3