← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Thunder Rock
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 SP 11/4 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Thunder Rock (SR 138, 7/2) is the class benchmark in this field, dropping a tier (ClassMv:↓1) onto a mark 4lb below his last win (MarkMv:-4), which is a significant double-concession from the handicapper. His GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good-to-soft, and the market has firmed 12% — meaningful in a six-runner field. Sean Bowen at 24% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking on the card. The 189-day absence is a concern, and top-weight at 11-13 is demanding over 2m7f on soft-ish ground, but Olly Murphy's 23% yard strike rate and the in-running money make this the most compelling case. Each-way alternative: I Wish You. Main danger: I Wish You — I Wish You (SR 132, 11/4) is the market's marginal favourite, backed in 15%, is only 6 — the most progressive horse in the field — and carries 8lb less than Thunder Rock, a meaningful allowance over nearly 3 miles on testing ground.
Full result
Winner: Thunder Rock (IRE) at SP 11/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Thunder Rock Fox #1 9/4
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2
Golden Point 17/2
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3
Major Fortune Fox #3 7/2
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4
Chasingouttheblues Fox #4 9/2
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5
Dubai Days 28/1
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I Wish You Fox #2 11/4
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3
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4