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14:19 Fontwell Thu 15 Oct 2026 2m5f135y Class 3 Good 4 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Inca de Lafayette

SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 28%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Inca de Lafayette (SR:130, 3/1, Wgt:10-5) carries the lowest weight in the field — 23lb less than the favourite Double Powerful — and has the highest SR, giving a meaningful lbs-per-SR edge. Paul Nicholls at 22% strike rate is the strongest training operation in the field, the market has backed this runner in 15% since opening, and the 4-star AI probability signal stands out against the field's three-star ratings. Form 321-23 shows a consistent competitor who placed in his last two starts; GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good ground, and running off the same class mark (ClassMv:=) removes the uncertainty of a step up in class. The 120-day absence is the one note of caution, but Nicholls habitually brings horses back ready. Each-way alternative: Double Powerful. Main danger: Double Powerful — Double Powerful (SR:129, 5/4) has proven course form (W1P1), DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ at Fontwell on good ground, and drops two classes (ClassMv:↓2) — but the 11% market drift, crushing top-weight of 11-10, and a +29 mark rise since his last win make him an overlay at short odds rather than a confident selection.

Verify· #23493

Full result

Winner: Double Powerful (IRE) at SP 8/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Double Powerful Fox #2 Neil Mulholland · Richie McLernon 11/10
2 Inca de Lafayette Fox #1 Paul Nicholls · Jay Tidball(5) 3/1
3 All The Glory Fox #3 Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · Jonjo O'Neill Jr. 7/2
— Glen To Glen Nick Scholfield · Harry Reed 7/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Inca de Lafayette 3/1 🥈 2ND
2 Double Powerful 5/4 SP 8/11F 🏆 WON
3 All The Glory 10/3 🥉 3RD