← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Fillies' Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)
Mr Fox’s call
Ablon
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 SP 4/1 Est. 23%
Mr Fox says
Ablon (SR 74, 4/1, Wgt 10-0) is the joint-top SR in the field alongside Glenna, but the market has done the most decisive work here — a 25% inward move is the strongest steaming signal in the race and Sean Levey's 13% strike rate in a yard that fires at 12% overall backs the confidence. Course:W1P2 at Kempton confirms she handles the track, and though DistFit:- is a concern, the same flag applies to the three other leading contenders. Running off a mark just 1lb higher than her last win (MarkMv:+1) means the handicapper has barely reacted, keeping her competitive on weight (10-0 is manageable for a 4-year-old in a Class 5 fillies' heat). The recent form 3 (two back) and 6 (three back) have been put behind her by a sharp return to form suggested by the market move. Each-way alternative: Glenna. Main danger: Glenna — Glenna (SR 75, 4/1, Wgt 9-8) is the joint-highest SR in the field, carries 6lb less than Ablon for the same odds, Rossa Ryan's 18% strike rate is the best jockey booking in the race, and dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) gives her an easier task than her recent starts.
Full result
Winner: Ablon (FR) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ablon Fox #1 7/2
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2
Glenna Fox #2 10/3
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3
Spinney 13/2
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4
Thunder Goddess 5/1
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5
Royale Goodnight 9/2
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6
Maywedance 33/1
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7
Dinah Myte 33/1
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8
Kashel Spring 66/1
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9
Tenison Fox #3 6/1
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—
Clarissa Eclipse 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Ablon 4/1 SP 4/1 🏆 WON
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2
Glenna 4/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Tenison 5/1 9TH