← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
RWK Goodman Veterans' Handicap Steeple Chase (Leg 6 Of The Stayers' Veterans' Chase Series)
Mr Fox’s call
Guard Your Dreams
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 Est. 29%
Mr Fox says
Guard Your Dreams (SR 135, 3/1, 12-0) carries top-weight but leads the field on ability by a clear margin and has been backed aggressively — a 20% market move in tells us significant money is behind this selection. At 3/1 the implied probability is around 33%, trimmed to roughly 30% after overround adjustment, and the SR advantage over the next-rated Fanion d'Estruval (SR 134) and The Boola Boss (SR 124) is meaningful even under top-weight. Trainer Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies (14% SR) send him out with Sam Twiston-Davies booked, a yard-jockey combination that rarely needs a confidence win — they run to win. The form string /21B4- shows a fall interruption and a blank last run, which the market appears to be discounting as excusable rather than a form collapse. Each-way alternative: Fanion d'Estruval. Main danger: The Boola Boss — The Boola Boss (SR 124, 9/2) has four stars from the AI model, carries a featherweight 10-4 — a massive 28lb pull on the selection — has proven course form (W0P3 at Ffos Las), DistFit:+, and Sean Bowen's booking (24% career strike rate) signals the yard's number-one runner; the weight concession could overcome the SR gap if the Good to Soft ground tests Guard Your Dreams under top-weight.
Full result
Winner: The Boola Boss (IRE) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
The Boola Boss Fox #2 9/2
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2
Hold Your Fort 11/1
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3
Fanion d'Estruval Fox #3 14/1
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4
Nocte Volatus 10/1
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5
Sherborne 12/1
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Guard Your Dreams Fox #1 10/3
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Iron Bridge 5/1
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Lord Accord 12/1
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Lermoos Legend 9/2
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Time To Bite -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Guard Your Dreams 3/1
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2
The Boola Boss 9/2 SP 5/1 🏆 WON
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3
Fanion d'Estruval 11/1 🥉 3RD