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19:30 Southwell (AW) Thu 08 Oct 2026 1m13y Class 6 Good 14 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Ernie's Valentine silks

Ernie's Valentine

SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 24%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Ernie's Valentine leads this field on SR (68) and carries a competitive 9-7 — not burdened by top-weight — while the market has steamed in 16%, the strongest positive market move among the genuine contenders. The MarkMv:-5 signals the handicapper has given connections a real opportunity, and trainer Ross Burdon hits at 12% strike rate with a jockey who lands 14% of rides. The GoingFit:~ on today's Good AW surface is acceptable and while DistFit:- is a concern at 1m13y, the SR advantage of 4-8 points over the next best genuine runners (Captain Cess SR:66, Asian Journey SR:64) combined with the market confidence tips the balance firmly in favour. Each-way alternative: Spirit Lead Me. Main danger: Spirit Lead Me — Spirit Lead Me has steamed in 21% — the joint-sharpest market move in the race — Richard Hughes hits at 15% and MarkMv:-1 means the horse is running off a competitive mark, making it the most credible threat to the selection despite a string of 8s and 9s that suggest it needs everything to fall right.

Verify· #22286

Full result

Winner: Spirit Lead Me (IRE) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Spirit Lead Me silks Spirit Lead Me Fox #2 Richard Hughes · Finley Marsh 9/2
  2. 2 Shaw Park silks Shaw Park Scott Dixon · Mikkel Mortensen(5) 14/1
  3. 3 Ernie's Valentine silks Ernie's Valentine Fox #1 Ross Burdon · Alexandra Egan(5) 7/2
  4. 4 Have You A Minute silks Have You A Minute Fox #4 Tom Tate · Saffie Osborne 11/2
  5. 5 Pretty Spirited silks Pretty Spirited Lawrence Mullaney · Alec Voikhansky 22/1
  6. 6 King of York silks King of York Scott Dixon · Callum Shepherd 33/1
  7. 7 Man of Desert silks Man of Desert Chris Dwyer · Silvestre De Sousa 8/1
  8. 8 Asian Journey silks Asian Journey Sam England · Jonny Peate 13/2
  9. 9 Enpassant silks Enpassant Scott Dixon · Christian Howarth(3) 18/1
  10. 10 Volto di Medusa silks Volto di Medusa Jack Jones · Cieren Fallon 17/2
  11. 11 Big Alex Walmsley silks Big Alex Walmsley Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque · Benoit de la Sayette 11/1
  12. 12 Union Island silks Union Island Charlie Johnston · Jack Callan 12/1
  13. — Moon Beginnings silks Moon Beginnings David Loughnane · Joanna Mason 10/1
  14. — Captain Cess silks Captain Cess Fox #3 Declan Carroll · Zak Wheatley 8/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Ernie's Valentine silks Ernie's Valentine 9/2 🥉 3RD
  2. 2 Spirit Lead Me silks Spirit Lead Me 7/2 SP 9/4F 🏆 WON
  3. 3 Captain Cess silks Captain Cess 7/1
  4. 4 Have You A Minute silks Have You A Minute 13/2 🏁 4TH