← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Minzelle
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Minzelle (SR:90, 10/3) is the K.R. Burke yard's clear #1 runner — the trainer operates at 20% career strike rate, and the 27% market support (steaming in) is the strongest positive money signal in the field. Dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) off a 14-day turnaround suggests the yard has spotted a winnable opportunity, and the relatively light weight of 9-5 gives a useful edge over Roxa Love's 9-6 and Lover Girl's 9-9. The form string 3160 shows a win recently and the class drop from a disappointing last run is a classic handicapper's move; Casino Star (the stablemate) is drifting while Minzelle steams in, confirming yard intent. Each-way alternative: Roxa Love. Main danger: Roxa Love — Roxa Love (SR:91, 3/1) is the field's highest SR, has a strong recent 311 form sequence under David Egan and George Boughey (18% strike rate), and although the 38% market drift is a concern, it is likely load-related given the trip — the raw ability is the best on paper and cannot be ignored.
Full result
Winner: Lover Girl (IRE) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lover Girl 9/2
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2
Casino Star 12/1
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3
Roxa Love Fox #2 7/2
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4
Minzelle Fox #1 5/2
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5
Princesse d'Orange 6/1
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6
Paper View Fox #3 6/1
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7
Needin' U Fox #4 10/1
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Dubai Charm 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4