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Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Mr Fox’s call
Sweet Horizon
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 SP 3/1F Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Sweet Horizon carries the highest SR in the field at 75, and critically does so off the lightest competitive weight at 9-6 — a meaningful lbs advantage over top-weight Ablon (SR 71, 10-0) and Eutropia (SR 73, 9-11). The market has shortened 22% since opening, signalling significant money for Tom Clover's 3-year-old, and Clover's 17% career strike rate is comfortably the strongest trainer figure in the race. The recent form of 8-2-3-5 shows a horse finding its feet, with the last two runs (3rd, 5th) at a similar class level, and blinkers applied first-time add a sharpening agent that often brings improvement. At 9/2, the market implied probability (~18%) looks too low given the combined SR leadership, weight advantage, market support, and top trainer-jockey combination with Jack Mitchell (16% career strike rate). Each-way alternative: Eutropia. Main danger: Eutropia — Eutropia (SR 73, 9/2) has an outstanding Course:W2P2 record at Bath — the strongest course form in the field — and despite running off a MarkMv:+7, a moderate GoingFit on today's good ground is offset by that specialist track advantage and the proximity of her last run just 25 days ago.
Full result
Winner: Sweet Horizon (GB) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sweet Horizon Fox #1 9/2
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2
Boy George Fox #3 8/1
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3
Ablon 9/2
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4
Zambezi Magic Fox #4 4/1
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5
Study Up 9/1
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6
A Daughters Love 9/1
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7
Eutropia Fox #2 9/2
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8
Rogue Sea 25/1
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Thiscouldbefun 14/1
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Pipily -
Top 4 — how each finished
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4