← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Your Elite Club Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Merrijig
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Merrijig (SR:68, 4/1) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and arrives dropping a class with a mark 2lb below his last win, providing genuine handicap leverage. The standout signal is a 34% market shortening — the strongest steam in the race by some margin — on a horse wearing blinkers for the first time, a combination that typically denotes connections believe the headgear will unlock improvement. Jockey Gina Mangan (11% career SR) is a competent booking at this level, and at 2m1f on good ground the moderate distance and going records (~) are not damning — they simply reflect a light sample rather than proven unsuitability. Fram Castle (SR:67) is the closest rival on ability but carries a poor GoingFit:- and a MarkMv:+3, meaning it runs off a higher mark than when last winning, blunting its claims despite course form. Each-way alternative: Fram Castle. Main danger: Al's River — Al's River (SR:66, 9/2) has steamed in 31% in the market — second only to Merrijig — with a top-tier jockey booking in Jack Mitchell (16% career strike rate) and a light weight of 9-2, giving it every chance to outrun its moderate going record on a potentially drying surface.
Full result
Winner: Pacific Storm (FR) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pacific Storm 7/2
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2
Calshot Spit 5/1
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3
Individualiste 17/2
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4
Star of Jupiter 7/1
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5
Buck Barrow Fox #4 17/2
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6
Smith 25/1
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7
Cherry Cola 18/1
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8
Merrijig Fox #1 4/1
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9
Chillhi 66/1
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10
Nature 66/1
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11
Al's River Fox #3 9/2
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—
Forest Hills 40/1
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—
Fram Castle Fox #2 5/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Merrijig 4/1 8TH
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2
Fram Castle 5/2
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3
Al's River 9/2 11TH
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4
Buck Barrow 15/2 5TH