Native Trail Zetland Stakes (Group 3)

13:50 Newmarket Sat 10 Oct 2026 1m2f0y Class 1 Good 11 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Apulia Bay

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/1 Est. 32%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Apulia Bay (SR:105, 5/1) is the standout pick, combining the second-highest SR in the fully-priced field with a dramatic 35% market move inward — the sharpest steaming in the race. James Doyle (21% career strike rate) is a strong booking for the Crisfords (19% strike rate, 1149 runners), and a form line of 3-2-1-3 shows consistent Group-level competitiveness with improvement through the campaign. Drumbeat (SR:98, 1/1) is the only serious SR rival among priced runners but has drifted 6% and posted a '3' last time, and at an odds-on price there is no value in backing what looks like an automatic O'Brien favourite without strong market conviction. Apulia Bay's money is talking clearly at 5/1 versus a horse who has been opposed by the market since opening. Each-way alternative: Wykehurst Park. Main danger: Drumbeat — Drumbeat (SR:98, 1/1) carries Ryan Moore (24% strike rate) for O'Brien and is running at the same class as last time — the market may be right that the drift is noise rather than signal given Moore's retention.

Verify· #22572

Full result

Winner: Drumbeat (IRE) at SP 10/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Drumbeat Fox #2 Aidan O'Brien · Ryan Moore 1/1
2 Wykehurst Park Fox #4 Andrew Balding · Rob Hornby 9/2
3 Apulia Bay Fox #1 Simon & Ed Crisford · James Doyle 9/2
4 Sword Salute Fox #3 Charlie Johnston · William Buick 8/1
5 Netherstream Jane Chapple-Hyam · Billy Loughnane 10/1
6 Bowdens Charlie Johnston · Rowan Scott 20/1
— Haldon Pier Ralph Beckett
— Albany County Aidan O'Brien
— Capability Brown Aidan O'Brien
— Hmas Perth Aidan O'Brien
— Wall Street Aidan O'Brien

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Apulia Bay 5/1 🥉 3RD
2 Drumbeat 1/1 SP 10/11F 🏆 WON
3 Sword Salute 11/2 🏁 4TH
4 Wykehurst Park 15/2 🥈 2ND