← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Matchbook Monthly Bet- Builder Rebate Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Burford Beauty
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 SP 13/8F Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Burford Beauty (SR:63, 5/2) leads the field on ability and carries only 9-5, giving her a weight advantage over the few rivals with comparable SR. Trainer Charlie Clover operates at a strong 21% strike rate from 177 runners — the best in this field — and the 18% market support (steaming in from a longer price) suggests connections are confident after 73 days off. The form string 0-9308 is moderate on the face of it, but the recent market move combined with the trainer's conversion rate signals a horse ready to improve. While DistFit:- and GoingFit:- are concerns shared across almost every runner here, making this effectively a level playing field on those metrics. Each-way alternative: King David. Main danger: King David — King David (SR:60, 13/2) has steamed in 18% in the market, carries only 9-3, has course form (W0P2 at Brighton), and a mark that has dropped 14lb since his last win — the combination of market confidence and a significantly eased mark on a track he handles makes him the most credible threat.
Full result
Winner: Burford Beauty (IRE) at SP 13/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Burford Beauty Fox #1 5/2
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2
Havana Mojito Fox #4 15/2
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3
Barnsnape Boy 50/1
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4
Oxford Circus 5/2
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5
Berning Hot Fox #3 7/1
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6
Edergole's Gift 25/1
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7
The Organiser 12/1
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8
Havana Halo 20/1
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9
Redredrobin 33/1
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10
King David Fox #2 6/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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4