← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Cladach
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Cladach (SR:74, 11/4) is the clear SR leader in this field by at least 3 points over Suir Monad (SR:71), and that advantage is meaningful in a modest 3yo handicap where most runners sit below 65. The recent form string 908322 shows consistent placing — the rightmost figures of 3-2-2 confirm the horse has been knocking on the door and is overdue a win. Joseph Patrick O'Brien at 16% career strike rate is comfortably the strongest training operation in the field, and Declan McDonogh is a proven big-stable booking. The weight of 9-13 is manageable and the price of 11/4 is fair without being compressed to the point of no value. The only concern is GoingFit:- on today's good ground, but with no GoingFit:+ rival to exploit that, it remains the most credible winner. Each-way alternative: Suir Monad. Main danger: Suir Monad — Suir Monad (SR:71, 4/1) has shortened 6% in the market, carries the same 9-13 as Cladach, and the consistent 4-3-4-3 form string — though without a win — suggests a horse that competes honestly and could capitalise if Cladach's poor GoingFit on today's good ground proves telling.
Full result
Winner: Suir Monad (IRE) at SP 85/40F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Suir Monad Fox #2 4/1
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2
Down The Glen 9/1
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3
Cladach Fox #1 11/4
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4
Roaming Coyote 13/2
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5
Closely 10/1
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6
Sherekiya 8/1
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7
Holy Lettuce 14/1
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8
Spinola Bear 22/1
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9
Pattyandselma 40/1
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10
Ocean Echo 25/1
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—
Star Strewn 12/1
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—
Strikepoint Fox #3 15/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Cladach 11/4 🥉 3RD
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2
Suir Monad 4/1 SP 85/40F 🏆 WON
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3
Strikepoint 17/2