← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
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Mr Fox’s call
Luimneach
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 SP 7/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Luimneach (SR:109, 4/1, Wgt:10-2) is the standout on a multi-signal basis. The market has moved in aggressively — 39% shorter since opening — which is the strongest market move in the field and represents real informed money in a nine-runner handicap chase. The weight assignment of 10-2 gives a meaningful lbs advantage over top-weight Its Bilbo (11-12) and Killeemore Lad (11-1), both of whom need to lug considerably more around 2m4f on good ground. The 2P-512 form string shows a win last time out and a consistent pattern of competitive runs at this level, and the tongue-tie headgear suggests connections are serious about producing a peak effort today. The four-star AI probability rating is the highest in the field and corroborates the market confidence. Each-way alternative: Killeemore Lad. Main danger: Its Bilbo — Its Bilbo (SR:119, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and is trained by Henry de Bromhead (16% strike rate, 2,340 runners) — the class edge is real even if the 19% market drift and untested distance/going flags are reasons for caution.
Full result
Winner: Luimneach (IRE) at SP 7/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Luimneach Fox #1 7/2
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2
Its Bilbo Fox #2 7/4
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3
Astley 13/2
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4
Banjaxed 20/1
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Idy Wood 22/1
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Drumgill Fox #4 12/1
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Killeemore Lad Fox #3 13/2
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Jupiter Du Gite 5/1
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One Last Tango 14/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Luimneach 4/1 SP 7/2 🏆 WON
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2
Its Bilbo 11/4 🥈 2ND
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3
Killeemore Lad 7/2
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4
Drumgill 12/1