← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Like A Butterfly Novice Steeplechase (Grade 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Shadow Paddy
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Shadow Paddy (SR 143, 4/1) has steamed in 15% in the market — the most significant move in this field — and brings a compelling form line of 1P-111, showing four wins from his last four completions with the sole blot a pull-up that does not diminish the subsequent hat-trick. He is proven at today's distance (DistFit:+) and on good ground (GoingFit:+), and while his SR of 143 trails Vicar Street's 163, the weight advantage is meaningful: Shadow Paddy carries 11-6 versus Vicar Street's 10-13, but critically Vicar Street's market has drifted 8% and carries a DistFit:? at 2m4f — a genuine question mark in a novice chase at this trip. Trainer McCarthy's 8% strike rate is modest but the money is coming in for a reason, and the combination of confirmed trip/going suitability, red-hot recent form, and clear market confidence makes Shadow Paddy the most compelling overall case. Each-way alternative: Frankie John. Main danger: Vicar Street — Vicar Street's SR of 163 is the highest in the field by a clear margin, Mullins and Cobden is the most powerful trainer-jockey combination in jump racing, and a form line of /12-31 shows consistent competitiveness at the top level — the drift to 7/4 from a likely shorter opening price may simply reflect field-money redistribution rather than a genuine negative signal.
Full result
Winner: Frankie John (IRE) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Frankie John Fox #3 15/8
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2
Vicar Street Fox #2 7/4
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3
Bowensonfire 15/2
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4
Shadow Paddy Fox #1 7/2
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5
D Art D Art 14/1
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—
Kilbarry Saint 18/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3