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17:55 Southwell (AW) Sat 03 Oct 2026 1m0f14y Class 4 Good 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Nostrum silks

Nostrum

SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 SP 3/1F Est. 28%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Nostrum (SR 86, 3/1) is one of three co-leaders on Saturday Rating but carries the strongest single market signal in the race — a 37% inward move to 3/1 is significant money talking, particularly for a Michael Appleby yard that fires at 13% strike rate. Running off a mark 33lb below his last win, the drop in the handicap mark is the standout data point in the entire field and gives him a huge theoretical edge over rivals at a similar SR. His GoingFit:- on Good is a genuine concern given last-run form of 52 on worse going, but Appleby specialises in Southwell AW and the MarkMv:-33 combined with the 37% market move is too compelling to ignore. Cristo and Wid share the same SR-86 ceiling but Cristo is rising 4lb from last win and Wid has drifted 21% — the market is clearly choosing Nostrum among the top-rated trio. Each-way alternative: Cristo. Main danger: Cristo — Cristo shares the SR-86 ceiling, carries the same 9-12 weight as Nostrum, has a proven DistFit:+ record and a course placing (W0P1), while Richard Hannon's yard runs at 12% — a confirmed each-way threat if Nostrum's going concerns materialise.

Verify· #21324

Full result

Winner: Nostrum (GB) at SP 3/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Nostrum silks Nostrum Fox #1 Michael Appleby · Andrew Mullen 3/1
  2. 2 Wid silks Wid Fox #3 Ralph Beckett · Rhys Clutterbuck 5/2
  3. 3 Magic Trip silks Magic Trip Andrew Balding · Rob Hornby 5/1
  4. 4 Camino Del Ray silks Camino Del Ray Julie Camacho · Dylan Hogan 28/1
  5. 5 Siwa Oasis silks Siwa Oasis Fox #4 Charles Hills · Dougie Costello 6/1
  6. 6 Dovey Moon silks Dovey Moon David Evans · David Nolan 18/1
  7. 7 Nakaaha silks Nakaaha Grace Harris · Ashley Lewis(3) 28/1
  8. 8 Vincent Rocks silks Vincent Rocks Ruth Carr · Darragh Keenan 33/1
  9. 9 Cristo silks Cristo Fox #2 Richard Hannon · Joe Leavy 15/2
  10. 10 Kalamunda silks Kalamunda Joseph Parr · Benoit de la Sayette 40/1
  11. 11 Wield silks Wield Joseph Parr · Sean Dylan Bowen 33/1
  12. 12 Franschhoek silks Franschhoek James Fanshawe · Jonny Peate 11/1
  13. 13 Golden Pharaoh silks Golden Pharaoh Scott Dixon · Christian Howarth(3) 33/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Nostrum silks Nostrum 3/1 SP 3/1F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Cristo silks Cristo 6/1 9TH
  3. 3 Wid silks Wid 7/2 🥈 2ND
  4. 4 Siwa Oasis silks Siwa Oasis 5/1 5TH