← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Gamble Responsibly At Betmgm Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Kicking Bear
SPECULATIVE Advised 1/1 SP 13/8 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Kicking Bear leads the field on SR at 160 — the highest ability rating here by 6 points over Altius — and has already shown its hand with a debut second that earned a class-up move of two tiers, suggesting connections and the handicapper both think highly of this colt. Crucially, the market has shortened 11% since opening, meaning money is coming for this horse at evens, not drifting. Trainer Ed Walker (16% strike rate, 1565 runners) is a respected handler of progressive juveniles, and Robert Havlin is a Newmarket specialist who partners Walker's better horses. The combination of SR superiority, strong market move, and evident class progression makes this the clearest selection in a small field. Each-way alternative: Altius. Main danger: Altius — Altius (SR 154) is the Charlie Appleby runner stepping up in class off a debut third — Appleby's yard strikes at 33% and regularly improves juveniles sharply between runs, and despite a 17% drift the underlying form could be better than the bare result suggests.
Full result
Winner: Kicking Bear (FR) at SP 13/8. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kicking Bear Fox #1 11/8
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2
Altius Fox #2 6/5
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3
Procyon 9/1
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4
Afif Fox #3 9/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3