Betmgm Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

14:25 Ascot Sat 03 Oct 2026 1m3f211y Class 1 Good to Firm 6 runners

Mr Fox’s call

Tenability

HIGH Advised 10/11 Est. 42%

🥉 3RD

Mr Fox says

Tenability (SR 128, 10/11) is the standout on every meaningful signal. The SR of 128 is comfortably the highest in this five-runner Group 3 field, and the market has hammered it in by 34% — the strongest single market move in the race by a wide margin. Course form of W3P4 at Ascot is exceptional and directly relevant; no other runner matches that course record. DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm today's 1m3f211y on good-to-firm is squarely in the horse's wheelhouse, and the recent form string of 2-3131 shows a progressive four-year-old in peak form. The tongue-tie (HG:t) is clearly a positive addition given the market confidence behind it, and trainer William Haggas (23% strike rate, 2,079 runners) is plainly sending this one out as the yard's number one over the stablemate Al Aasy, who is nine years old, has drifted 52%, and carries a materially inferior SR of 120. Each-way alternative: By The Book. Main danger: By The Book — By The Book (SR 116, 9/2) carries the same weight as Tenability at 9-5, has DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirmed, and Charlie Appleby's 33% career strike rate means the yard's number one runner is always a live threat — the form string of -33622 shows consistency at this level even if a win has been elusive recently.

Verify· #21230

Full result

Winner: Al Aasy (IRE) at SP 7/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 Al Aasy Fox #3 William Haggas · Daniel Tudhope 4/1
2 Royal Playwright Andrew Balding · Jason Watson 16/1
3 Tenability Fox #1 William Haggas · Harry Davies evn
4 By The Book Fox #2 Charlie Appleby · Billy Loughnane 9/2
5 Royal Power Charlie Appleby · Kieran Shoemark 5/1
— Plage de Havre Andrew Balding · Callum Hutchinson -

Top 4 — how each finished

1 Tenability 10/11 🥉 3RD
2 By The Book 9/2 🏁 4TH
3 Al Aasy 5/1 SP 7/1 🏆 WON