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Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed)

17:20 Gowran Park Fri 02 Oct 2026 2m100y Class 1 Good 13 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Long'way silks

Long'way

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Long'way (SR 107, 5/2) is the standout on multiple converging signals. As the Mullins yard's clear #1 runner — booked for stable jockey Mr P W Mullins who strikes at 33% career rate versus the weaker bookings on Village Dream and Alicious — and trained by the dominant yard in Irish NH racing (26% strike rate over 2,927 runners), the structural case is strong. The form figure of '1' on debut bumper form is typical for a Mullins-prepared mare being aimed at a target like this Listed mares' bumper, and the 5/2 market price reflects genuine confidence without any drift signal. While all runners share DistFit:? and GoingFit:? given the nature of bumpers (no prior race data), Thelittleballerina (SR 113, 7/2) is marginally superior on SR but the jockey booking disparity is decisive — Mr J Dunne strikes at only 6% versus Mullins's son at 33%, and the 123-day absence adds further concern. Each-way alternative: Thelittleballerina. Main danger: Thelittleballerina — Thelittleballerina holds the highest SR in the shortlist at 113, has a race-ready recent run pattern (31-1 form with a last-time-out win), and has been steamed 21% in the market despite the 123-day break, suggesting connections believe she retains peak form.

Verify· #21097

Full result

Winner: Sarahs Lawn (IRE) at SP 9/4F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Sarahs Lawn silks Sarahs Lawn Declan Queally · Mr D L Queally 6/1
  2. 2 Long'way silks Long'way Fox #1 W. P. Mullins · Mr P W Mullins 5/2
  3. 3 Missouri Snow silks Missouri Snow Nigel Thomas Slevin · Mr H C Swan 40/1
  4. 4 Thelittleballerina silks Thelittleballerina Fox #2 Ian Patrick Donoghue · Mr J Dunne 9/2
  5. 5 Alicious silks Alicious W. P. Mullins · Miss J Townend 10/1
  6. 6 Bonnie Loch silks Bonnie Loch Edward F Power · Mr J C Barry 50/1
  7. 7 Lola O C silks Lola O C Fox #4 Henry de Bromhead · Mr J L Gleeson 5/1
  8. 8 Weaponized silks Weaponized Sean Thomas Doyle · Mr J L Scallan 25/1
  9. 9 Village Dream silks Village Dream W. P. Mullins · Miss A B O'Connor 16/1
  10. 10 False Dawn silks False Dawn Brendan Oliver Walsh · Mr J J Berry 50/1
  11. — Elegantemente silks Elegantemente Fox #3 Henry de Bromhead · Mr A P Ryan 4/1
  12. — Hutton Star silks Hutton Star David Harry Kelly · Mr P A King 22/1
  13. — Lake Pippaway silks Lake Pippaway Terence O'Brien · Mr Finian Maguire 80/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Long'way silks Long'way 5/2 🥈 2ND
  2. 2 Thelittleballerina silks Thelittleballerina 7/2 🏁 4TH
  3. 3 Elegantemente silks Elegantemente 9/2
  4. 4 Lola O C silks Lola O C 13/2 7TH