← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Nuvo Audit Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Nolton Cross
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/4 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Nolton Cross (SR:87, 11/4) carries an 18% market steam — the sharpest inward move in this field — and boasts a remarkable Course:W4P7 record at Wolverhampton, making it a proven track specialist. The drop of one class (ClassMv:↓1) combined with a mark 4lb lower than last win (MarkMv:-4) puts connections in a position to strike, and Hugo Palmer's booking of David Probert (both solid 13% strikers) underlines this is a serious intended run. The SR:87 leads only Elsass (SR:90) and Last Verse (SR:91) on raw ability, but the weight of 10-2 is offset by the class drop and the course dominance that no other runner comes close to matching. Each-way alternative: Elsass. Main danger: Elsass — Elsass (SR:90, 9/4) has steamed 28% in the market — the joint-largest inward move — carries a GoingFit:+ on today's going bucket, and holds the highest SR in the field, meaning if the DistFit:- concern at this trip proves unfounded in handicap company, it is the most likely winner.
Full result
Winner: Quiet Summer (GER) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Quiet Summer 10/3
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2
Elsass Fox #2 6/4
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3
Nolton Cross Fox #1 3/1
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4
Model Yuko 10/1
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5
Last Verse Fox #3 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3