← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Derrinlaur Mares Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Sallap
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Sallap (SR:98, 5/2) is the clear class leader in this field by a significant margin — 14 points above Misty Cove (SR:92) and 13 above Eaglewood (SR:85). Two wins and two places at Clonmel specifically is a standout course record that no rival can match, and she returns just 12 days after her latest run in good condition. The MarkMv:+11 is a concern — she's running off a mark 11lb higher than her last win — but her SR advantage is large enough to absorb that penalty, and her GoingFit:~ confirms she handles similar conditions. The market drift of 10% is worth monitoring but is not dramatic enough to override the weight of evidence from course form, SR dominance, and consistency in her form string (011552 reads as placed, placed, placed, won, won, 2nd — a horse in solid nick). Each-way alternative: Misty Cove. Main danger: Demanding Gerry — Demanding Gerry (SR:84, 4/1) has shortened 14% in the market, carries a favourable weight of 10-7 compared to Sallap's 11-12, and the tongue-tie addition plus a 12-day turnaround from James Andrew Fahey's yard suggests this is a yard primed for a run — the weight-for-rating edge could matter if Sallap's higher mark blunts her.
Full result
Winner: Mount Shenshan (IRE) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Mount Shenshan 10/1
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2
Demanding Gerry Fox #3 10/3
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3
Eaglewood Fox #4 11/2
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4
Princess Felicia 9/2
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5
Sallap Fox #1 10/3
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6
Mia In Milan 40/1
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7
Misty Cove Fox #2 15/2
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8
Golden Wings 28/1
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9
Courtmac Gesture 28/1
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10
Feet On The Ground 33/1
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11
Crossbar Getaway 28/1
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—
Tasmanian Girl 17/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Sallap 5/2 5TH
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2
Misty Cove 13/2 7TH
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3
Demanding Gerry 4/1 🥈 2ND
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4
Eaglewood 8/1 🥉 3RD