Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap

15:20 Bellewstown Thu 01 Oct 2026 5f3y Good 10 runners

Mr Fox’s call

El Fontenaro

SPECULATIVE Advised 9/4 Est. 32%

5TH

Mr Fox says

El Fontenaro (SR:71, 9/4) is the clear class standout in this modest €6,000 handicap — the SR-71 is the highest in the field by 5 points and represents a meaningful quality edge at this level. The market has shortened 7% since opening, confirming professional confidence, and at 9/4 the implied probability (~31%) closely matches my estimate. The DistFit:- and GoingFit:- flags are a genuine concern, but in a field this weak, the SR advantage and market movement override those reservations; no rival combines comparable ability with better going/distance form. Days:2 is tight but connections have clearly chosen this race deliberately given the market move. Each-way alternative: Steel Magnolia. Main danger: Steel Magnolia — Steel Magnolia (SR:66, 15/8) carries 2lb less than El Fontenaro, has W.J. Lee booked — a 16% career strike-rate jockey that McCreery clearly trusts — and the yard's #1 based on market position, making it the most likely to capitalise if El Fontenaro's very quick turnaround (Days:2) proves costly.

Verify· #20848

Full result

Winner: One Cool Bear (IRE) at SP 17/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

1 One Cool Bear Adrian McGuinness · Adam Caffrey 12/1
2 Ballysax Lil' Mick Miss Katy Brown · Wesley Joyce 11/2
3 Star Allure Ms Claire O'Connell · Siobhan Rutledge 12/1
4 Steel Magnolia Fox #2 W. McCreery · W. J. Lee 5/2
5 El Fontenaro Fox #1 Jarlath P Fahey · Reese Holohan(5) 9/4
6 Dandy Land Fox #3 W. McCreery · Sam Coen(5) 9/2
7 Banish Misfortune Gerard Kyne · Donagh O'Connor 16/1
8 Gold Inn G A Kingston · Rory Mulligan(5) 80/1
9 Smart Sioux Ms Claire O'Connell · Rory Cleary 66/1
— Hastily Tom McGuinness · Shay Wallace(7) 22/1

Top 4 — how each finished

1 El Fontenaro 9/4 5TH
2 Steel Magnolia 15/8 🏁 4TH
3 Dandy Land 9/2 6TH