Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes

16:18 Nottingham Thu 01 Oct 2026 1m2f50y Class 5 Good 14 runners

Mr Fox’s call

New Bay Star

SPECULATIVE Advised 15/2 Est. 28%

7TH

Mr Fox says

New Bay Star (SR:69, 15/2) has steamed in 35% in the market — the strongest move in this field by some distance — which is a powerful signal that connections and informed money are confident. At 3 years old running off 9-7, it carries the joint-lightest weight among the competitive SR tier, giving it a meaningful lbs advantage over Celestias Comet (SR:69, 10-0) and Garden Oasis (SR:69, 9-10). The DistFit:+ confirms genuine proven ability at this trip, and trainer Michael Appleby (13%, 1710 runners) and jockey Ray Dawson (14%, 1228 runners) both carry solid professional strike rates at scale. The form string -32060 shows recent inconsistency but the dramatic market move suggests something has clicked — possibly a surface or setup switch — and the age/weight profile gives it the physical scope to deliver here. Each-way alternative: Crimson Road. Main danger: Crimson Road — Crimson Road (SR:75, 7/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin, has shortened 10% in the market, and arrives on a red-hot form string of 594111 — three consecutive wins — with a DistFit:+ confirming it handles this trip; the GoingFit:- and class rise (↑1) off a mark 5lb higher than its last win are the only credible negatives.

Verify· #20876

Full result

Winner: Pleasant Man (GB) at SP 22/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.