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Ebf Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

13:23 Nottingham Thu 01 Oct 2026 0m5f8y Class 4 Good 5 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Caelum silks

Caelum

SPECULATIVE Advised evn SP 8/15F Est. 42%

🏆 WON

Mr Fox says

Caelum (SR:133, evens) is the clear ability leader in this field by a significant margin — 6 SR points clear of Runaway Lucy and over 50 points clear of the rest. Despite only one run (a second place), the 12% market move inward confirms yard and market confidence, and Kevin Ryan (13% strike rate, 1,692 runners) and Kevin Stott are a reliable combination. Carrying 9-7 versus 9-2 for the field is a minor concern in a five-runner maiden, but the SR edge is too large to be offset by 5lb at this level. The unknown going and distance fit (both ?) is the key caveat — but as a 2yo maiden over a short sprint, inexperience with conditions is universal here. Each-way alternative: Runaway Lucy. Main danger: Runaway Lucy — Runaway Lucy (SR:127) is only 6 SR points behind Caelum, has been off just 15 days suggesting a quick return in good order, and at 100/1 the market has clearly discounted her — but in a five-runner maiden, a raw 2yo with a single run (8th) can improve sharply, and her SR suggests the ability is latent if the debut run was misleading.

Verify· #20789

Full result

Winner: Caelum (IRE) at SP 8/15F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Caelum silks Caelum Fox #1 Kevin Ryan · Kevin Stott 1/2
  2. 2 Crimson Blaze silks Crimson Blaze Richard Hughes · William Buick 15/2
  3. 3 Viking Barbie silks Viking Barbie Fox #3 Ollie Sangster · Callum Rodriguez 5/2
  4. 4 Runaway Lucy silks Runaway Lucy Fox #2 Brian Ellison · Dale Swift 80/1
  5. — Lady Branksome silks Lady Branksome Michael Bell · Callum Shepherd 3/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Caelum silks Caelum evn SP 8/15F 🏆 WON
  2. 2 Runaway Lucy silks Runaway Lucy 100/1 🏁 4TH
  3. 3 Viking Barbie silks Viking Barbie 7/2 🥉 3RD