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Mr Fox’s call
Stay On Tab
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Stay On Tab (SR:58, 11/8) is the only horse in the field with a win on its form string — the rightmost digit '1' confirms a recent victory — and it drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) off that winning run, meaning today's grade is easier than where it last scored. It carries a featherweight 8-12, the lowest significant burden in the field, giving a meaningful pounds advantage over Tricky Jenny (9-9) and Calef (9-8). The tongue-tie (HG:t) has been retained from the winning run, suggesting connections are not changing a formula that worked, and a course place (Course:W0P1) at Musselburgh provides additional familiarity. The GoingFit:- is a concern on Good ground, but the market has made it a very short favourite regardless, and no other runner offers a more compelling multi-signal case. Each-way alternative: Lairy Mary. Main danger: Lairy Mary — Lairy Mary (SR:59, 4/1) holds the highest SR in the field, has steamed 25% in the market suggesting informed confidence, and drops a class off a recent run — if its form figures (164624) include a hidden strong effort, it could outclass Stay On Tab on ability terms despite the distance concern.
Full result
Winner: Lairy Mary (GB) at SP 2/1F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Lairy Mary Fox #2 4/1
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2
North Coates 16/1
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3
Tricky Jenny 8/1
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4
Yorkshire Dream 7/1
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5
Savoy Blue 18/1
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6
Calef Fox #3 13/2
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Stay On Tab Fox #1 11/10
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3