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Racing To School Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Bladey Lady
SPECULATIVE Advised 15/8 SP 7/4 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Bladey Lady (SR 70, 15/8) is the highest-rated runner in the field and her recent form string 347118 shows a clear progression arc, with that rightmost '8' actually being a win — she has won most recently and is now dropping a class tier (ClassMv:↓1), which is a positive signal. Crucially, the market has steamed 20% since opening, representing the strongest market move in the race, suggesting informed money is backing her. She carries 9-9 versus the favourite's 10-1, giving her a 6lb weight advantage over Duchess of Immatin despite a comparable SR, and her DistFit:+ confirms she handles this trip. The concern is the MarkMv:+7 — she runs off a mark 7lb higher than at her last win — but given the class drop and the weight edge over the top-rated rival, this is manageable. Each-way alternative: Duchess of Immatin. Main danger: Duchess of Immatin — Duchess of Immatin (SR 67, 4/5) arrives on a career-best form line of 441 — that last-time win — and is dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2), which represents a significant ease in company; if that drop overcomes the 17% market drift and the 6lb weight disadvantage, she remains the one most capable of reversing the market signals.
Full result
Winner: Bladey Lady (IRE) at SP 7/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Bladey Lady Fox #1 2/1
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2
Duchess of Immatin Fox #2 8/11
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3
Baila Morena 11/1
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4
Johns Power 14/1
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5
Purrista 40/1
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6
Redrosecastana 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2