← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Molson Coors Beverage Company Nursery Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Santo Parvenue
SPECULATIVE Advised 2/1 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Santo Parvenue (SR:79, 2/1) is the clear class leader in this field — a full 10 SR points clear of The Drambling Man (SR:69) and 14 points clear of the favourite Premier View (SR:65). The recent form of 4471 shows a progressive profile culminating in a win last time out, and the market has backed this up with a 24% shortening since opening, confirming confidence from connections. W.J. Lee is a 16% career-strike jockey booking that adds further weight to intent. The MarkMv:+12 is a concern as the mark has risen 12lb since the last win, but with the best SR in the field by a clear margin and the lightest competitive weight at 9-1, Santo Parvenue holds a meaningful lbs edge over heavier rivals and the blinkers (HG:b) appear to have activated the horse. Each-way alternative: Premier View. Main danger: Premier View — Premier View (SR:65, 11/8 despite Mkt:out22%) is trained by Henry de Bromhead — a 16% strike-rate yard — and at 10-2 carries 9lb more than Santo Parvenue which is significant at 5f on good ground, but the yard's record and the horse's recent form of 81 (win on debut, placed next) make it the most likely alternative winner if Santo Parvenue underperforms off the raised mark.
Full result
Winner: Premier View (IRE) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Premier View Fox #2 7/2
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2
Invincible Irish 5/1
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3
Santo Parvenue Fox #1 10/11
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4
Syrah 33/1
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5
Rathbran Lady 11/1
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6
Annie Tips 28/1
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—
The Drambling Man Fox #3 5/1
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—
Stellar Path 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Santo Parvenue 2/1 🥉 3RD
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2
Premier View 11/8 SP 100/30 🏆 WON
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3
The Drambling Man 5/1