← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Darley Fillies Stakes (Group 3)
Mr Fox’s call
Alpine Wedding
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Alpine Wedding (SR 104, 7/2) carries the strongest SR in this field and has backed that up with a steaming market move of 27% inward — the most significant market support of any runner declared. Her form line 53541 shows a recent win and consistent engagement at this class level, and trainer P. Twomey operates at a 24% strike rate which is comfortably the best of the competitive trainers here. The DistFit:~ and GoingFit:? flags are a mild concern, but the raw SR advantage over the field (6 points clear of Damsel In Distress, 4 points clear of Curracloe) combined with the sharpest money in the race makes her the clear selection. Each-way alternative: Damsel In Distress. Main danger: Curracloe — Curracloe (SR 100, 11/10) is the market favourite with a perfect 1-from-1 debut record and Ben Coen booked — the market is pricing in unexposed upside that could see her SR rating as a significant underestimate of her true ability.
Full result
Winner: Curracloe (USA) at SP 13/8J. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Curracloe Fox #3 6/5
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2
Alpine Wedding Fox #1 3/1
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3
Damsel In Distress Fox #2 7/2
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4
Lady Patrona 33/1
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5
Film Set 11/1
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6
Tosca No Candis 40/1
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7
Fine Line 100/1
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8
Value Pending 10/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Alpine Wedding 7/2 🥈 2ND
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2
Damsel In Distress 7/2 🥉 3RD
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3
Curracloe 11/10 SP 13/8J 🏆 WON