← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Kaguyahime
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/5 SP 10/11F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Kaguyahime (SR 158, 4/5) is the clear ability leader in this field by a significant margin — 8 points clear of the next-best Perfect Gal (SR 150) and 11 points clear of She's Got A Way and Woollahra (both SR 147). Critically, the market has shortened 12% since opening, meaning money is being placed with conviction rather than drifting. Roger Varian's 20% career strike rate is the strongest in this field and he sends the horse stepping down a class (ClassMv:↓1), which is a tactical advantage. The sole concern is the form figure of 3 — a debut third — in a novice context on soft ground with no distance or going fit data, but the SR gap is large enough and the market support sufficient to make this a clear selection. Each-way alternative: Perfect Gal. Main danger: Perfect Gal — Perfect Gal (SR 150, 8/1) has steamed in 15% in the market, holds course form (W0P1 at Haydock), and Cieren Fallon's 18% strike rate is the strongest jockey booking in the field behind the favourite — a combination of track knowledge and market confidence that cannot be ignored.
Full result
Winner: Kaguyahime (IRE) at SP 10/11F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kaguyahime Fox #1 8/11
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2
My Girl Dee Mo 17/2
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3
Woollahra Fox #4 12/1
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4
She's Got A Way Fox #3 15/2
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5
Hotterthanjuly 9/1
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6
Perfect Gal Fox #2 12/1
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7
Shabby 33/1
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8
Zirconic 25/1
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9
Miss Faithfull 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Kaguyahime 4/5 SP 10/11F 🏆 WON
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2
Perfect Gal 8/1 6TH
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3
She's Got A Way 7/1 🏁 4TH
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4
Woollahra 10/1 🥉 3RD