← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Read Johnny Burke's Blog At Copybet Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Little Ledgend
SPECULATIVE Advised 11/8 SP 5/6F Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Little Ledgend (SR 130, 11/8) leads this four-runner field on ability and carries the most favourable weight at 10-9 — a 13lb advantage over Serious Chat and a significant edge over Kayf Dancer (11-0). The market has hammered it in 31% since opening, a dramatic move that in a small field of four speaks loudly; Olly Murphy (23% strike rate, 1,788 runners) booking Sean Bowen (24%, 2,359 runners) is the strongest connections pairing in the race by a clear margin. Course form of W1P2 at Worcester is a concrete advantage on a specialist track, GoingFit:+ confirms comfort on today's good ground, and the recent form line 23-221 — a win last time out — shows a horse arriving at peak confidence. The MarkMv:+9 is the only caution, but the weight offset and multi-signal alignment make this a high-confidence selection. Each-way alternative: Kayf Dancer. Main danger: Kayf Dancer — Kayf Dancer (SR 129, 3/1) has steamed in 30% in the market, carries a handy 11-0, holds DistFit:+ at this trip, and the Bowen stable pairing (trainer 16%, jockey 20%) is formidable — the recent 2 finish last time out at what looks like a stiffer level suggests residual form, and if the market move is informative this could be a sharp drop into winning territory.
Full result
Winner: Little Ledgend (IRE) at SP 5/6F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Little Ledgend Fox #1 6/5
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2
Turndlightsdownlow Fox #3 3/1
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3
Serious Chat 7/1
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4
Kayf Dancer Fox #2 10/3
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El Capitaine -
Top 4 — how each finished
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2
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3