← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Northumbrian Wateraid Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Farabove The Limit
SPECULATIVE Advised 3/1 SP 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Farabove The Limit (SR:68, 3/1) carries the lightest weight of the leading pair at 9-6, giving a meaningful edge over Rubellite (SR:69, 10-1). The 24% market shortening is the single clearest money signal in the race — from an opening price, the market has decisively backed this horse, and combined with a last-time-out win (form reading ...491, rightmost=1) and a solid jockey booking in Paul Mulrennan (14% career SR across 2,402 runners), the case is multi-signal. At Class 6 on the same class as last run (ClassMv:=) and running off only a 3lb rise (MarkMv:+3) following that win, the handicapper hasn't overcorrected, leaving value at 3/1. Each-way alternative: Rubellite. Main danger: Rubellite — Rubellite (SR:69, 11/4) holds the narrow SR lead over Farabove The Limit and brings Course:W4P10 — an exceptional course-specialist record at Newcastle AW — alongside a DistFit:+ and a last-time-out win, making it the most plausible winner if the 8% drift is explained by the mark rise rather than any fitness concern.
Full result
Winner: Farabove The Limit (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Farabove The Limit Fox #1 10/3
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2
That Darn Cantor 7/1
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2
Spirit of Nature 33/1
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4
Newport 11/2
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5
Beckon 25/1
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6
Havachoc 11/2
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7
Rubellite Fox #2 10/3
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8
Sutton Hoo 33/1
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9
Dancingondiamonds 20/1
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10
Ouro Preto 11/1
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11
Hey Havana Fox #3 8/1
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12
Cusack 33/1
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—
Beat The Odds 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Farabove The Limit 3/1 SP 4/1 🏆 WON
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2
Rubellite 11/4 7TH
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3
Hey Havana 15/2 11TH