← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Turf Services Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Arrange
SPECULATIVE Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Arrange (SR 75, 4/1, 9-8) is the class standout in this field by a clear margin — the next best is Circuit Breaker at SR 68 — and has assembled a compelling multi-signal case. The market has already moved in his favour (Mkt:in19%), he carries a mark 14lb below his last win (MarkMv:-14) making him well-treated, and his Course:W1P3 record at Haydock combined with DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirms he handles 1m6f on soft ground better than almost anyone in the field. At 8 years old with a cheekpiece application and dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1), trainer Martin Todhunter's 11% strike rate is modest but the convergence of course specialist form, proven distance/going fit, and a significant mark drop makes this a genuinely attractive proposition at 4/1. Each-way alternative: Velvet Whisper. Main danger: Percy Jones — Percy Jones (SR 64, 17/2) drops three classes (ClassMv:↓3), is proven in soft going (GoingFit:+), has had his mark cut 4lb since his last win (MarkMv:-4), and a Class 5 contest at 1m6f soft represents a significant opportunity for a horse that recorded a DistFit:~ at this trip — the main concern is the 20% market drift but the class drop is steep enough to override that on ability grounds.
Full result
Winner: Shaffron (GB) at SP 5/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Shaffron 10/1
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2
Kotari 12/1
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3
Circuit Breaker 5/1
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4
Billy No Mates 12/1
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5
Joanna Hiffernan Fox #4 7/1
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6
Marbuzet 22/1
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7
Good Onya Mate 20/1
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8
Togeather Forever 50/1
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9
Velvet Whisper Fox #2 10/3
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—
Percy Jones Fox #3 11/1
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Arrange Fox #1 4/1
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Dust Cover 11/1
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Ottoman 28/1
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Sisterandbrother -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Arrange 4/1
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2
Velvet Whisper 5/1 9TH
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3
Percy Jones 17/2
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4
Joanna Hiffernan 11/2 5TH