← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Steeplechase
Mr Fox’s call
Love Me Tender
MEDIUM Advised 6/4 SP 8/13F Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Love Me Tender (SR:131, 6/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin over Largy Hill (SR:124) and I Will Be Baie (SR:121), and crucially carries the same weight as every rival at 11-12 — so the SR advantage translates directly without any weight offset. The Mullins yard is running four horses here, but this one is their #1 signal: it carries Harry Cobden (22% career strike rate, the most accomplished jockey in the race), has steamed in 38% in the market — the only horse in the field with meaningful market support — and at 5 years old it is the youngest and most likely to be progressive. The form string 3345-4 shows consistent placed efforts and this is its chase debut in a beginners' context where its hurdle ability (SR:131) should be class-superior. Mullins at 26% strike rate with a steamer ridden by Cobden is an extremely strong combination. Each-way alternative: Largy Hill. Main danger: I Will Be Baie — I Will Be Baie (SR:121, 10/3) has a form figure of '1' in its recent string and is the second Mullins runner with Paul Townend aboard (38% career strike rate), suggesting it is the yard's second string and capable of exploiting any jumping error from Love Me Tender on chase debut.
Full result
Winner: Love Me Tender (FR) at SP 8/13F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Love Me Tender Fox #1 5/4
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2
I Will Be Baie Fox #2 10/3
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3
Will Do 22/1
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4
Rattledelatch 50/1
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5
Largy Hill Fox #3 12/1
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6
Jarrive De Mee 10/1
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7
Our Soldier 40/1
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8
Tackletommywoowoo 10/1
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9
Fort Dino Fox #4 4/1
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10
Ellens Pride 250/1
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11
Barton Sky 125/1
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—
Chanceawetmorning 16/1
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—
Three County Star 250/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Love Me Tender 6/4 SP 8/13F 🏆 WON
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2
I Will Be Baie 10/3 🥈 2ND
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3
Largy Hill 8/1 5TH
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4
Fort Dino 15/2 9TH