← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle
Mr Fox’s call
Lenjoleur De Palma
SPECULATIVE Advised 10/3 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Lenjoleur De Palma (SR 104, 10/3) is the standout on multiple converging signals. Critically, this is the only runner in the field with both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — proven at today's 2m trip and today's good ground — while carrying 11-9 compared to the joint-rated Churchwarden at 11-10 on a going type (GoingFit:-) it cannot handle. The form string 63123- shows consistent placed efforts culminating in a recent win, and running off MarkMv:+14 — the most modest upward mark adjustment of any leading contender — suggests the handicapper has not over-reacted. E McNamara strikes at 11% from 514 runners, and the market at 10/3 shows strong favouritism in a 15-runner field, justified by the fitting profile. The stable's second string Jaadil is drifting (Mkt:out10%) and has GoingFit:-, confirming Lenjoleur De Palma as the yard's intended winner. Each-way alternative: Kilbrin Rocco. Main danger: Kilbrin Rocco — Kilbrin Rocco (SR 97, 6/1, MarkMv:-9) is running off a mark 9lb below its last win, carries only 10-6 — a meaningful 17lb pull versus top-weight Ephesus — and the GoingFit:~ and DistFit:~ suggest it is not out of its depth on today's conditions, while the McCarthy yard's market support (no drift flagged) is in contrast to stable companion Mc Swagger's 24% drift.
Full result
Winner: Kilt (IRE) at SP 9/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Kilt Fox #4 14/1
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2
Kilbrin Rocco Fox #2 10/3
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3
Ahellofaman 28/1
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4
Beckistine 16/1
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5
Jaadil 9/1
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6
Lenjoleur De Palma Fox #1 10/3
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7
Metamorpheus 6/1
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8
Sayitfirst 33/1
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9
Churchwarden Fox #3 4/1
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10
Superficial 14/1
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11
Ephesus 25/1
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12
Rene's Gold 16/1
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—
Acheron 33/1
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—
Mc Swagger SP
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Dream Shaper 25/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Lenjoleur De Palma 10/3 6TH
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2
Kilbrin Rocco 6/1 🥈 2ND
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3
Churchwarden 9/2 9TH
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4
Kilt 12/1 SP 9/1 🏆 WON