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18:00 Southwell (AW) Thu 24 Sep 2026 7f15y Class 5 Good 9 runners

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Mr Fox’s call

Lieutenant Kije silks

Lieutenant Kije

SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%

🥈 2ND

Mr Fox says

Lieutenant Kije leads the field on SR (75) and carries only 9-10 — level with Bold Shout but with a meaningful SR edge over the rest. The GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good going, the market has shortened 12% since opening (money arriving with purpose), and Billy Loughnane (18% strike rate, 3,038 career rides) is the standout jockey booking in the field. Recent form 326-53 at the same class shows consistent competitiveness, and a cheekpiece application signals connections are trying to sharpen him. The 5/2 price implies roughly 29% market probability — my 32% estimate reflects a slight edge given the multi-signal alignment. Each-way alternative: Bold Shout. Main danger: Bold Shout — Bold Shout (SR:74, 9/2) is within 1 SR point of Lieutenant Kije, trained by the high-strike Clive Cox (17%), and carries the same weight, with recent form showing a win last time out (form:44138 rightmost = 8th, then 3, then 1) — if the drift from opening is noise rather than a genuine negative signal, he's the most dangerous rival at a workable price.

Verify· #19569

Full result

Winner: Tasdeed (FR) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.

  1. 1 Tasdeed silks Tasdeed Charlie Pike · Kieren Fox 5/1
  2. 2 Lieutenant Kije silks Lieutenant Kije Fox #1 Tom Ward · Billy Loughnane 2/1
  3. 3 Show Me Gold silks Show Me Gold Tom Dascombe · William Carson 17/2
  4. 4 Bold Shout silks Bold Shout Fox #2 Clive Cox · P. J. McDonald 5/1
  5. 5 Shaw Park silks Shaw Park Scott Dixon · Kieran O'Neill 12/1
  6. 6 Bad Habits silks Bad Habits Ruth Carr · James Sullivan 22/1
  7. 7 Hectic silks Hectic Liam Bailey · Billy Garritty 10/1
  8. 8 Herculeus silks Herculeus Fox #3 William Muir & Chris Grassick · Lewis Edmunds 15/2
  9. 9 Norfolk Blue silks Norfolk Blue William Knight · Taylor Fisher 11/1

Top 4 — how each finished

  1. 1 Lieutenant Kije silks Lieutenant Kije 5/2 🥈 2ND
  2. 2 Bold Shout silks Bold Shout 9/2 🏁 4TH
  3. 3 Herculeus silks Herculeus 13/2 8TH