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Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Harley
SPECULATIVE Advised 7/2 Est. 35%
Mr Fox says
Harley (SR:93, 7/2) combines the most compelling multi-signal case in the field: a significant class drop of two tiers (ClassMv:↓2) meaning this race should be well within reach, confirmed distance fitness (DistFit:+) and crucially a GoingFit:+ on today's good ground — the only runner proven on this going. The market has steamed 34% (Mkt:in34%), suggesting informed money is backing the drop in class, and jockey Daniel Tudhope (18% career strike rate, 1,898 runners) is a meaningful booking. The recent form string 523214 shows consistent mid-field efforts at a higher level; stepping down two tiers off a mark only 2lb above last win (MarkMv:+2) is very manageable. Captaincy leads on SR (92) and market at 15/8 but has the unknown variables of a 87-day absence and unproven distance and going fitness, making Harley's confirmed fitness on both counts the decisive edge. Each-way alternative: The Mean Fiddler. Main danger: Captaincy — Captaincy carries the highest SR (92), is the market favourite at 15/8 with a 21% market-in move, and trainer Clive Cox (17%) with Callum Rodriguez (19%) is a sharp combination — if the 87-day absence hasn't blunted the horse, the class held and SR lead makes it the chief threat.
Full result
Winner: Captaincy (IRE) at SP 11/8F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Captaincy Fox #2 6/5
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2
Harley Fox #1 7/2
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3
Reflect On Glory 17/2
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4
The Mean Fiddler Fox #3 11/4
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5
Lake Muritz 22/1
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Diamond New Bay 8/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3