← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Eddie And Violet Smith Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Jakajaro
SPECULATIVE Advised 6/5 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Jakajaro (SR 110, 6/5) is the class leader in this field by a clear margin and has been heavily backed — shortening 33% from the opening price, the most significant market move among the serious contenders. Dropping one tier (ClassMv:↓1) at 9-13 represents a workable weight, and Jamie Spencer's booking on a horse with legitimate ability at this level is a positive signal. The DistFit:- is a genuine concern — Jakajaro has not shown a strong record at 5f — but the class edge over rivals rated 94-101 is sizeable, and the Cowell yard operates at a solid 13% strike rate with nearly 700 runners. The market money, the SR superiority, and the class drop combine to make this the most compelling case in a small field. Each-way alternative: Toca Madera. Main danger: Toca Madera — Toca Madera (SR 101, 10/3) has steamed in 53% — the biggest market move in the field — with Tudhope booked (18% career strike rate), and at 9-8 carries 5lb less than Jakajaro, which on a sharp 5f at Beverley could partially offset the SR deficit if the going-and-distance negatives are overstated by the data.
Full result
Winner: Toca Madera (IRE) at SP 9/4. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Toca Madera Fox #2 9/4
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2
Badri 15/2
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3
Ain't Nobody Fox #3 11/4
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4
Jakajaro Fox #1 7/4
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5
Opal Storm 80/1
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6
Wor Faayth 33/1
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Jm Jungle -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3