← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
EWGA Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Imperial Merlin
SPECULATIVE Advised 9/2 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Imperial Merlin (SR:119, 9/2) carries 11-12 — a 2lb weight relief over the joint top-weights Al Sayah and Shallow River — and crucially the market has shortened 10% since opening, the only meaningful inward move in this field. GoingFit:+ confirms proven ability on today's good-to-soft ground, and stepping up two classes (ClassMv:↑2) is offset by a mark only 3lb above last win (MarkMv:+3), suggesting he is not overexposed. The 167-day absence is a concern but trainer Quinn's booking of Quinlan (17% strike rate from 84 rides) signals they believe the horse is ready. At 9/2 with market confidence behind it, this represents genuine each-way value in a wide-open seven-runner Class 2. Each-way alternative: Divilabother. Main danger: Divilabother — Divilabother (SR:119, 10/3) carries the least weight of the leading group at 11-13, boasts the strongest recent form in the field (Form:361112 — four finishes from the last four runs including back-to-back wins), holds course form (W1P1 at Cartmel), and Davidson's 19% yard strike rate is among the best here; the drift of 17% is the one concern but may simply reflect the longer trip being untested.
Full result
Winner: Divilabother (IRE) at SP 4/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Divilabother Fox #2 7/2
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2
Kayf Dancer Fox #3 11/2
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3
Al Sayah 4/1
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4
Imperial Merlin Fox #1 13/2
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5
Belles Benefit 4/1
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6
Imperial Data 10/1
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7
Shallow River Fox #4 11/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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4