← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Ina And Ella MacGregor Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Blakefell
SPECULATIVE Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Blakefell (SR 89, 5/2) is the class standout in this field, carrying 9-7 alongside a GoingFit:+ confirming proven ability on good ground and Course:W1P3 showing genuine Musselburgh affinity — four prior visits yielding a win and three places is a powerful specialist advantage on this track. The market has shortened 8% since opening, suggesting stable confidence, and Jason Hart (14% career strike rate) is a reliable booking. The MarkMv:+3 is only a modest rise off the last win, and at 5/2 the implied probability (~29%) is actually slightly below our assessed 32%, making this a fair-value play rather than a skinny price. The recent form 2-1632 shows consistency with no complete collapse, and the last run second-to-last is recency concern, but course-and-distance specialists at this level tend to find their ground at a home track. Each-way alternative: The Resdev Scholar. Main danger: The Resdev Scholar — The Resdev Scholar (SR 83, 9/2) has steamed in 15% in the market, owns Course:W1P1 at Musselburgh, and GoingFit:~ on today's good ground — if that market confidence reflects stable insider knowledge, the money could be landing on the right horse at a generous price.
Full result
Winner: Two Commanders (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Two Commanders Fox #3 7/2
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2
Blakefell Fox #1 9/4
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3
Velvet Rhythm Fox #4 11/1
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4
The Resdev Scholar Fox #2 7/2
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5
Light The Night Up 14/1
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6
Viper 10/1
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7
Siouxpersonic 10/1
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8
Carmel Valley 22/1
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9
Beyond The Bar 20/1
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10
Yy Spirit 66/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Blakefell 5/2 🥈 2ND
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2
The Resdev Scholar 9/2 🏁 4TH
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3
Two Commanders 10/3 SP 3/1 🏆 WON
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4
Velvet Rhythm 11/1 🥉 3RD